Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, April 28

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe storms are expected initially across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late this afternoon and early evening, and across the southern Great Plains and Ozarks by tonight. Very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds are anticipated.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 15%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281958

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms are expected initially across parts of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late this afternoon and early evening,
and across the southern Great Plains and Ozarks by tonight. Very
large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds are anticipated.

...discussion...
Little in the way of change was made to the ongoing convective
outlook.  Minor adjustment was made to the 10% tornado area over
parts of the OH Valley based on recent iterations of CAM guidance.

..Smith.. 04/28/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

...Synopsis...
Potential exists for multiple severe episodes this afternoon into
tonight across the Enhanced Risk characterized by increasing
moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and ample vertical shear.
However, some of this risk is conditional and confidence is below
average in mesoscale details regarding severe coverage.

...TN/OH Valleys...
A mid-level impulse over eastern NE should decay during the period
as an upstream shortwave trough pivots over the Four Corners into
AZ/NM. This will effectively yield rising heights over a large
portion of a poleward-advecting warm sector emanating from the Gulf.
This warm sector will remain characterized by rather rich mean
mixing ratios with upper 60s to middle 70s surface dew points
becoming established from the OH Valley on south as a warm front
passes north through this evening. 

Within the low-level warm-advection regime, elevated convection is
ongoing from NE/IA into MO/IL. Additional activity may develop
farther south/east closer to the advancing warm front towards late
afternoon. Low-level hodographs will be comparatively large within
this corridor in conjunction with 40-50 kt 850-mb flow. This setup
could support mixed modes of discrete supercells and upscale-growing
bows capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. These
threats will probably remain along and north of the warm front, with
capping increasingly pronounced with southern extent in the warm
sector.

...Southern Great Plains to the Ozarks...
Similar to areas farther east, an increasingly rich low-level air
mass is steadily returning, but beneath a more substantial 700-mb
cap. This should inhibit sustained storm development until about
03Z. Along the northwest periphery of the warm sector, a
consolidating surface cyclone over northwest TX amid near-neutral
mid-level height change should result in strengthening frontal
convergence and yield storm development over OK into far northwest
OK. Storm coverage should become widespread overnight along and
north of the quasi-stationary front eastward across the Ozarks.

Supercell-favorable wind profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates
should support several rotating storms with large hail (some
significant) as the primary hazard. Damaging winds and a couple
tornadoes will also be possible, particularly with cells that can be
sustained along the quasi-stationary front. The overall evolution
into a broad clustering band with embedded line segments amid an
anafrontal setup should yield a predominant hail and some wind risk,
continuing on an increasingly isolated basis into the overnight.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, April 28
TORNADO: 10%
HAIL: 30%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, April 29
ANY SEVERE: 45%
Sunday, April 30
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, May 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, May 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, May 3
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, May 4
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, May 5
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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