Scattered to numerous severe storms are likely this afternoon with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds from central Florida to coastal South Carolina. This risk will end during the evening.
SPC AC 201614 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL FL TO COASTAL SC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe storms are likely this afternoon with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds from central Florida to coastal South Carolina. This risk will end during the evening. ...FL Peninsula... Isolated storms are ongoing across the north/central FL, with scattered strong storms evident in the northeast Gulf. This offshore activity should spread inland during the next few hours. Modified 12Z Tampa Bay and 14Z Jacksonville soundings suggest MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg is prevalent with effective shear around 50 kt. Low/deep-layer wind profiles will strengthen with approach of the AL shortwave trough. This should result in several supercells evolving across the peninsula this afternoon capable of producing all hazards. Veered surface winds along with the early afternoon timing of storms inland should limit the potential for 10% or greater coverage of significant severe, however a strong tornado and 2-inch hail are possible. The severe threat will diminish during the early evening as large-scale ascent subsides. ...Coastal Plain of GA/SC/NC... West-east oriented trailing outflow in the wake of an early morning MCS is evident across the central portion of the SC coast. This demarcates the warm/moist air mass to the south with recovery/modification occurring to its north into extreme southern NC. While further diffusing of the outflow boundary is anticipated, the bulk of moderate buoyancy will likely be confined to coastal SC southward this afternoon. Scattered to numerous storms should emanate out of ongoing cumulus field evident over southeast GA as mid-level height falls associated with the AL shortwave trough increase. Embedded supercells appear probable amid nearly unidirectional wind profiles and strengthening deep-layer shear. All hazards are anticipated mainly near the immediate coast before the bulk of severe convection moves offshore by the early evening. ..Grams/Cook.. 03/20/2018 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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