Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, August 16
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161221
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and Great Lakes region.
MN/Great Lakes Region
A long-lived severe MCS that affected parts of SD and southwest MN overnight has weakened in east-central MN. These storms will track eastward this morning into a region of moderate MUCAPE, but slightly cooler/drier surface air over WI that was affected by one or more areas of thunderstorms yesterday. For this reason, these storms are expected to struggle to organize, with locally gusty winds being the main concern today. Refer to MCD #1963 for further short-term details.
Farther south across parts of IA/IL/IN, an overnight MCS pushed the effective surface boundary south into northeast MO and central IL. Strong daytime heating and southerly low-level winds will help the boundary to retreat back into northern IA/IL by mid-afternoon. The corridor along/north of the boundary should provide the greatest potential for re-development of a few storms later today, with locally damaging wind gusts possible. Given the uncertainty of where the boundary is, and anticipated limited coverage of storms, will maintain MRGL risk at this time.
SD and Vicinity
A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently over western CO and will spread into eastern WY/western Dakotas by evening. Similar to yesterday, high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching trough and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Another nocturnal MCS may affect central/eastern SD tonight, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail.
..Hart/Dean.. 08/16/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Upper Midwest, southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160545
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Upper Midwest, southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley
At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow will remain over the northern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, upslope flow will gradually become established over much of the western and central Dakotas, as a low deepens over eastern Montana. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from southern South Dakota northwestward into eastern Montana. Large-scale ascent will be weak along this corridor keeping convective coverage isolated. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep and 0-6 km shear is forecast to be mostly in the 25 to 35 knot range. This may be enough for an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early evening.
Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. From near the ridge axis and to the east, strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from northeast Iowa into northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Large-scale ascent will remain limited, which will keep convective coverage isolated. If a cell or two can initiate and persist, the strong instability could be enough for a few marginally severe gusts.
To the west of the mid-level ridge axis across Minnesota, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon due to a subtle shortwave trough approaching from the southwest. While moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of Minnesota, this convection will likely remain well to the north of the axis of instability. For this reason, any threat for severe wind gusts and hail should be marginal.
..Broyles.. 08/16/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, August 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160714
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes.
Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes
A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail.
..Broyles.. 08/16/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat.
On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast.
..Broyles.. 08/16/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat.
On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast.
..Broyles.. 08/16/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat.
On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast.
..Broyles.. 08/16/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat.
On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast.
..Broyles.. 08/16/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat.
On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast.
..Broyles.. 08/16/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, August 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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