Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, April 19
Outlook Summary
Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191950
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening.
Little change made to the outlook at 20Z.
Southeast
Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells.
See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details.
..Jewell.. 04/19/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/
Southeast this afternoon/evening
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening.
TX through tonight
–No change needed to previous forecast discussion– Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 20
Outlook Summary
Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into southern South Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191652
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into southern South Carolina.
Synopsis
An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the southern Plains through Saturday night.
At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms.
TX
Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front.
Coastal SC into southern GA and AL
The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow, strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will be possible.
..Jewell.. 04/19/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Gulf Coast region, but no severe threat is expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Gulf Coast region, but no severe threat is expected.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central Gulf Coast states on Sunday, as a cold front moves from the coastal areas into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the front early in the day. Other post-frontal storms may develop in parts of the Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. Instability across the Gulf Coast is expected to be very weak limiting any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, April 22
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190849 SPC AC 190849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night.
On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.
Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 23
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190849 SPC AC 190849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night.
On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.
Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 24
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190849 SPC AC 190849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night.
On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.
Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 25
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190849 SPC AC 190849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night.
On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.
Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 26
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190849 SPC AC 190849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night.
On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.
Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, April 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, April 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, April 23
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, April 24
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, April 25
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, April 26
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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