Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, June 23
Sunday, June 24
Monday, June 25
Tuesday, June 26
Wednesday, June 27
Thursday, June 28
Friday, June 29
Saturday, June 30

Outlook for Saturday, June 23

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are expected from the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley and a portion of the Southeast States. Other severe storms are expected over the Middle Atlantic region. More isolated strong to severe storms might occur over a portion of the central and northern Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230605

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are expected from the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley and a portion of the Southeast States. Other severe storms are expected over the Middle Atlantic region. More isolated strong to severe storms might occur over a portion of the central and northern Plains.

Southern Plains

Outflow boundary from ongoing MCS will reinforce stationary front currently situated near the OK/TX border. This boundary might shift a little farther north into OK today. Diabatic heating of the moist warm sector will contribute to strong instability in the vicinity of and south of the front (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), but a capping inversion should limit thunderstorm initiation much of today. Current thinking is that storms may initiate by late afternoon near the intersection of the dryline and front across northwest TX. Additional storms may also develop farther east within frontal zone, especially during the evening as the southerly low-level jet strengthens. A belt of modest winds aloft with 25-30 kt at 500 mb will result in 35-40 kt effective bulk shear near/north of the front where surface winds will remain backed to easterly. Weaker shear will reside in warm sector. Both multicell and some supercell structures will be possible with damaging wind and large hail the main threat from late afternoon into the evening. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in later updates, but uncertainty imposed by ongoing MCS regarding where the corridor of greater severe potential will be located precludes an upgrade at this time.

Lower Mississippi Valley through Southeast States.

MCS may still be in progress over the lower MS Valley region and most likely over AR. It remains uncertain whether this activity will be severe, but remnant MCV and outflow boundaries accompanying the MCS will provide a focus for additional development during the day. The downstream atmosphere will likely become moderately unstable with up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. A belt of stronger winds aloft will accompany the MCV/shortwave trough, and storms will likely reintensify during the afternoon. The environment appears supportive of swaths of damaging wind through the afternoon into the early evening.

Middle Atlantic region

Warm front will lift north through VA and into PA during the day ahead of a cold front accompanying a shortwave trough. Diabatic warming of the moist warm sector will result in moderate instability. A belt of stronger winds aloft will accompany the upper low as it shifts northeast and transitions to an open wave. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain with a lee trough across central VA also becoming a focus for development. Storms may organize into broken bands as they develop east with also some potential for mid-level updraft rotation given effective bulk shear increasing to 30-40 kt. Damaging wind will be the main threat, but some hail will also be possible.

Central through northern Plains

Ascent accompanying a shortwave trough moving southeast through the northern Rockies and diabatic heating will promote thunderstorm development over the higher terrain. High based storms capable of downburst winds and hail appears to be the main threat.

Farther east across SD into eastern NE, surface trough accompanying a lead shortwave trough will provide a focus for storm development during the afternoon. Modest winds aloft will promote multicell storm modes with a few instances of marginally severe hail and gusty winds possible.

..Dial/Wendt.. 06/23/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 24

Outlook Summary

Significant severe storms capable of destructive winds, very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible on Sunday across much of Kansas into northern Oklahoma, and into eastern Texas Panhandle. A few severe storms are also possible over the Tennessee and Kentucky region.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230816

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

SUMMARY

Significant severe storms capable of destructive winds, very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible on Sunday across much of Kansas into northern Oklahoma, and into eastern Texas Panhandle. A few severe storms are also possible over the Tennessee and Kentucky region.

Synopsis

A shortwave trough will move from the central Rockies into the Plains, with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max. Low pressure will deepen over the TX Panhandle, with a very moist and unstable air mass spreading northward. A cold front will develop into western KS, with up to a 50 kt southerly low-level jet across OK and KS during the evening. The combination of lift, increasing shear and a highly unstable air mass will lead to widespread thunderstorm activity, with severe weather likely during the afternoon and evening.

To the east, cyclonic flow aloft will generally lift northward from the mid Atlantic into the northeast with zonal to west-northwesterly flow aloft across the OH and TN Valleys. Here, substantial low-level moisture and instability will remain in place, with scattered storms, some possibly severe.

Central Plains

Models are generally in agreement bring a very moist air mass with dewpoints near 70 F northward into KS, with MUCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg developing with steep lapse rates aloft. Storms are expected to be ongoing across the CO/KS/NE border region near the cold front, and these storms will likely grow upscale with time as the air mass becomes uncapped later in the day. Some models such as the NAM suggest the early activity develops rather quickly. However, this appears to be an outlier solution compared to the GFS and ECMWF, and, forecast soundings do show some capping around 700. Therefore, will go with the more diurnal solution of mid-afternoon upscale growth into an MCS into central KS. Damaging winds, some significant, will be possible. Very large hail is likely with any supercellular storms mode, along with a few tornadoes. Additional supercells are possible southward into western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle.

Southeast MO eastward into western Virginia

Sporadic storms are expected during the day, both early and during the afternoon. Instability will favor strong storms, but the overall synoptic pattern with rising heights aloft suggests little organization to the activity. Still, marginal hail or wind will be possible.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% SIG - Enhanced Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced

..Jewell.. 06/23/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 25

Outlook Summary

A few severe storms are possible mainly across Iowa, Missouri, and eastern Kansas.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

A few severe storms are possible mainly across Iowa, Missouri, and eastern Kansas.

Synopsis and Discussion

An upper low with a 50-60 kt midlevel speed max will move slowly northeastward across the northern Plains, with an attendant weak surface low. A warm front will lift northward to a central IA to northern KY line by 00Z, with a very moist air mass to the south. Meanwhile, a front will extend southwestward from the low across eastern NE and KS. Substantial early day precipitation is expected across much of the warm sector, and marginally severe wind or hail is possible. Diurnally driven storms are also expected, and precise locales of redevelopment will favor both the synoptic boundaries as well as residual outflow. A few strong storms are also possible extending into part of the OH and TN Valleys, where moderate instability will develop beneath weak northwesterly flow aloft.

..Jewell.. 06/23/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230758 SPC AC 230758

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper low will move from the upper MS Valley on Tue/D4 northeastward across the Great Lakes through Wed/D5, and will exit the Northeast by Thu/D6. Meanwhile, fast zonal flow will remain over the northern Plains and Rockies, with a gradual return to an upper trough over the Northwest for Thu/D6-Sat/D8 and an upper high over the East.

Moisture and instability will gradually build through the period from the upper MS Valley eastward, and this will likely fuel bouts of strong to severe storms. The most likely are for severe weather at this time appears to be across the northern Plains on Thu/D6, from the Dakotas into MN, in association with a strong warm advection pattern. However, predictability is currently too low for this type of scenario.

..Jewell.. 06/23/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, June 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230758 SPC AC 230758

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper low will move from the upper MS Valley on Tue/D4 northeastward across the Great Lakes through Wed/D5, and will exit the Northeast by Thu/D6. Meanwhile, fast zonal flow will remain over the northern Plains and Rockies, with a gradual return to an upper trough over the Northwest for Thu/D6-Sat/D8 and an upper high over the East.

Moisture and instability will gradually build through the period from the upper MS Valley eastward, and this will likely fuel bouts of strong to severe storms. The most likely are for severe weather at this time appears to be across the northern Plains on Thu/D6, from the Dakotas into MN, in association with a strong warm advection pattern. However, predictability is currently too low for this type of scenario.

..Jewell.. 06/23/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, June 28

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230758 SPC AC 230758

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper low will move from the upper MS Valley on Tue/D4 northeastward across the Great Lakes through Wed/D5, and will exit the Northeast by Thu/D6. Meanwhile, fast zonal flow will remain over the northern Plains and Rockies, with a gradual return to an upper trough over the Northwest for Thu/D6-Sat/D8 and an upper high over the East.

Moisture and instability will gradually build through the period from the upper MS Valley eastward, and this will likely fuel bouts of strong to severe storms. The most likely are for severe weather at this time appears to be across the northern Plains on Thu/D6, from the Dakotas into MN, in association with a strong warm advection pattern. However, predictability is currently too low for this type of scenario.

..Jewell.. 06/23/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, June 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230758 SPC AC 230758

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper low will move from the upper MS Valley on Tue/D4 northeastward across the Great Lakes through Wed/D5, and will exit the Northeast by Thu/D6. Meanwhile, fast zonal flow will remain over the northern Plains and Rockies, with a gradual return to an upper trough over the Northwest for Thu/D6-Sat/D8 and an upper high over the East.

Moisture and instability will gradually build through the period from the upper MS Valley eastward, and this will likely fuel bouts of strong to severe storms. The most likely are for severe weather at this time appears to be across the northern Plains on Thu/D6, from the Dakotas into MN, in association with a strong warm advection pattern. However, predictability is currently too low for this type of scenario.

..Jewell.. 06/23/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, June 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230758 SPC AC 230758

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper low will move from the upper MS Valley on Tue/D4 northeastward across the Great Lakes through Wed/D5, and will exit the Northeast by Thu/D6. Meanwhile, fast zonal flow will remain over the northern Plains and Rockies, with a gradual return to an upper trough over the Northwest for Thu/D6-Sat/D8 and an upper high over the East.

Moisture and instability will gradually build through the period from the upper MS Valley eastward, and this will likely fuel bouts of strong to severe storms. The most likely are for severe weather at this time appears to be across the northern Plains on Thu/D6, from the Dakotas into MN, in association with a strong warm advection pattern. However, predictability is currently too low for this type of scenario.

..Jewell.. 06/23/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 23
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Sunday, June 24
ANY SEVERE: 30%
Monday, June 25
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, June 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, June 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, June 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, June 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, June 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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