Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, March 29
Thursday, March 30
Friday, March 31
Saturday, April 1
Sunday, April 2
Monday, April 3
Tuesday, April 4
Wednesday, April 5

Outlook for Wednesday, March 29

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight from parts of east Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Very large hail, tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong) and damaging wind are all possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 291248

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight from
parts of east Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas into the
lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Very large hail, tornadoes (a
couple of which could be strong) and damaging wind are all possible.

...East Texas and Oklahoma, southeast Kansas into the middle and
lower Mississippi Valley areas...

Ongoing line of storms moving through eastern OK, extreme western AR
and southeast TX should continue a gradual diminishing trend as it
advances east this morning, though an isolated strong wind gust or
two cannot be ruled out over southeast TX. The expansive convective
debris will delay destabilization until at least early afternoon
when pockets of diabatic warming and northward advection of modified
continental polar air should contribute to some boundary-layer
recovery and a corridor of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from eastern
portions of the Southern Plains to the lower to middle MS valley.
Initial surface low has consolidated over eastern OK this morning in
association with a lead northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough.
This feature will move very slowly northeast into southeast KS
during the day while weaker secondary cyclogenesis is possible
farther south across AR during the evening as another lobe of
vorticity rotates through the base of the upper trough accompanied
by a strengthening secondary branch of the low-level jet.

Current indication is that additional storms will likely develop
from southeast KS through eastern OK and eastern TX this afternoon
in corridor of stronger destabilization and within the evolving
pre-frontal confluent flow regime. This activity will subsequently
move east into southern MO, AR and LA. Mid-level jet rotating
through the base of the upper trough will contribute to favorable
vertical shear profiles for supercells, and low-level hodographs
will support potential for a few low-level mesocyclones and
tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong) especially as storms
move east into AR and southern MO where strengthening low-level jet
will be maximized during the late afternoon into the evening.
Initially discrete modes will promote a risk for very large hail and
a few tornadoes, but tendency will be for storms to consolidate into
lines by mid-late evening which suggest primary threat should
eventually transition to damaging wind overnight. Due to the
stabilizing effects of morning convection which will delay and
potentially limit boundary layer recovery, will not introduce a
moderate risk at this time but continue to evaluate during the next
update.

..Dial/Grams.. 03/29/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, March 30

Outlook Summary

An active severe weather event is forecast for Thursday over parts of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 45%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 290543

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE
TN...NORTHWEST AL...AND SOUTHWEST KY...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL MS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
An active severe weather event is forecast for Thursday over parts
of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley.

...Northern MS/Northwest AL/Western and Middle TN/Southwest KY...
A strong upper trough will rotate across the southern/central Plains
today, and into the lower/mid MS Valley on Thursday.  Models suggest
that thunderstorm activity from the Day1 period will be waning in
most areas by Thursday morning, while the primary cold front remains
over central AR/LA.  This should allow for some heating and
destabilization to occur ahead of the front, with re-development of
thunderstorms during the afternoon near the MS River.  A strong
mid-level speed max (50+ knots at 700mb) will rotate across the cold
front during the afternoon, promoting strong low-level and deep
layer vertical shear profiles.  Forecast soundings show 0-3km SRH
values of 200-300 m2/s2 and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg.  Several 00z cam
solutions that extend into the Day2 period indicate discrete
supercell mode will be preferred with the activity, suggesting a
favorable environment for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
 Strong tornadoes and very large hail will be possible in the MDT
risk area.  The eastward extent of low level moisture will be a
limiting factor to how far east the significant severe threat will
develop.  Nevertheless, strong to severe storms may reach eastern
KY/TN and parts of AL during the evening.

...MO/IL/IN...
It appears the risk for severe storms will also extend northward
into parts of MO/IL/IN during the day as activity blossoms ahead of
the approaching shortwave trough.  This area will likely experience
more cloud cover on Thursday, limiting the confidence in sufficient
instability.  Nevertheless, hail and damaging wind will be possible
in the stronger cells.

..Hart.. 03/29/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, March 31

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop on Friday over parts of the Southeast.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 290647

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY FROM
SOUTHEAST VA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST GA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop on Friday over
parts of the Southeast.

...VA into Carolinas and southeast GA...
A shortwave trough will track eastward from the TN Valley on
Thursday into the southeast states on Friday.  Model guidance
suggests that timing of shortwave is considerably faster than
previously depicted.  This results in less time for destabilization
over the Carolinas/GA ahead of the trough.  Also, 00z model
solutions suggest wind fields will be weaker and coverage of
thunderstorms is less certain.  Therefore will maintain only a MRGL
risk of severe storms on Friday for parts of VA, the Carolinas, and
southeast GA.

..Hart.. 03/29/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, April 1

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290756
SPC AC 290756

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day4/Sat - OK/TX...
Current water vapor loops show a well-defined shortwave trough
roughly 1000nm off of the coast of northern CA.  This feature is
forecast to deepen over the western states later this week and
affect the southern plains beginning Saturday.  Southerly low level
winds will increase ahead of the trough over TX/OK, with the surface
dryline developing from western OK into central TX.  This will be
the focus of scattered thunderstorms.  Current indications are that
sufficient instability and shear will be present in this corridor on
Saturday for a risk of severe storms.

...Day5/Sun - TX into the ArkLaMiss region...
Models become a little more divergent in solutions on Sunday, but
generally depict the development of a surface low over east TX.  An
associated low-level jet will lift northward across LA, helping to
spread rich tropical moisture inland across the warm sector.  Strong
winds aloft and favorable moisture/instability profiles suggest a
risk of organized severe storms over southeast TX, much of LA,
western MS, and southern AR on Sunday.

...Day6/Mon thru Day8/Wed - Southeast states...
Beyond Day5, model disagreement becomes too large to confidently
forecast daily areas of severe storm risk.  However, given the
strong upper system and ample low level moisture/instability that
will likely be present, severe risk areas are expected to be
delineated in later updates for early next week over parts of the
southeast states.

..Hart.. 03/29/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, April 2

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290756
SPC AC 290756

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day4/Sat - OK/TX...
Current water vapor loops show a well-defined shortwave trough
roughly 1000nm off of the coast of northern CA.  This feature is
forecast to deepen over the western states later this week and
affect the southern plains beginning Saturday.  Southerly low level
winds will increase ahead of the trough over TX/OK, with the surface
dryline developing from western OK into central TX.  This will be
the focus of scattered thunderstorms.  Current indications are that
sufficient instability and shear will be present in this corridor on
Saturday for a risk of severe storms.

...Day5/Sun - TX into the ArkLaMiss region...
Models become a little more divergent in solutions on Sunday, but
generally depict the development of a surface low over east TX.  An
associated low-level jet will lift northward across LA, helping to
spread rich tropical moisture inland across the warm sector.  Strong
winds aloft and favorable moisture/instability profiles suggest a
risk of organized severe storms over southeast TX, much of LA,
western MS, and southern AR on Sunday.

...Day6/Mon thru Day8/Wed - Southeast states...
Beyond Day5, model disagreement becomes too large to confidently
forecast daily areas of severe storm risk.  However, given the
strong upper system and ample low level moisture/instability that
will likely be present, severe risk areas are expected to be
delineated in later updates for early next week over parts of the
southeast states.

..Hart.. 03/29/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, April 3

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290756
SPC AC 290756

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day4/Sat - OK/TX...
Current water vapor loops show a well-defined shortwave trough
roughly 1000nm off of the coast of northern CA.  This feature is
forecast to deepen over the western states later this week and
affect the southern plains beginning Saturday.  Southerly low level
winds will increase ahead of the trough over TX/OK, with the surface
dryline developing from western OK into central TX.  This will be
the focus of scattered thunderstorms.  Current indications are that
sufficient instability and shear will be present in this corridor on
Saturday for a risk of severe storms.

...Day5/Sun - TX into the ArkLaMiss region...
Models become a little more divergent in solutions on Sunday, but
generally depict the development of a surface low over east TX.  An
associated low-level jet will lift northward across LA, helping to
spread rich tropical moisture inland across the warm sector.  Strong
winds aloft and favorable moisture/instability profiles suggest a
risk of organized severe storms over southeast TX, much of LA,
western MS, and southern AR on Sunday.

...Day6/Mon thru Day8/Wed - Southeast states...
Beyond Day5, model disagreement becomes too large to confidently
forecast daily areas of severe storm risk.  However, given the
strong upper system and ample low level moisture/instability that
will likely be present, severe risk areas are expected to be
delineated in later updates for early next week over parts of the
southeast states.

..Hart.. 03/29/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, April 4

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290756
SPC AC 290756

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day4/Sat - OK/TX...
Current water vapor loops show a well-defined shortwave trough
roughly 1000nm off of the coast of northern CA.  This feature is
forecast to deepen over the western states later this week and
affect the southern plains beginning Saturday.  Southerly low level
winds will increase ahead of the trough over TX/OK, with the surface
dryline developing from western OK into central TX.  This will be
the focus of scattered thunderstorms.  Current indications are that
sufficient instability and shear will be present in this corridor on
Saturday for a risk of severe storms.

...Day5/Sun - TX into the ArkLaMiss region...
Models become a little more divergent in solutions on Sunday, but
generally depict the development of a surface low over east TX.  An
associated low-level jet will lift northward across LA, helping to
spread rich tropical moisture inland across the warm sector.  Strong
winds aloft and favorable moisture/instability profiles suggest a
risk of organized severe storms over southeast TX, much of LA,
western MS, and southern AR on Sunday.

...Day6/Mon thru Day8/Wed - Southeast states...
Beyond Day5, model disagreement becomes too large to confidently
forecast daily areas of severe storm risk.  However, given the
strong upper system and ample low level moisture/instability that
will likely be present, severe risk areas are expected to be
delineated in later updates for early next week over parts of the
southeast states.

..Hart.. 03/29/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, April 5

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290756
SPC AC 290756

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day4/Sat - OK/TX...
Current water vapor loops show a well-defined shortwave trough
roughly 1000nm off of the coast of northern CA.  This feature is
forecast to deepen over the western states later this week and
affect the southern plains beginning Saturday.  Southerly low level
winds will increase ahead of the trough over TX/OK, with the surface
dryline developing from western OK into central TX.  This will be
the focus of scattered thunderstorms.  Current indications are that
sufficient instability and shear will be present in this corridor on
Saturday for a risk of severe storms.

...Day5/Sun - TX into the ArkLaMiss region...
Models become a little more divergent in solutions on Sunday, but
generally depict the development of a surface low over east TX.  An
associated low-level jet will lift northward across LA, helping to
spread rich tropical moisture inland across the warm sector.  Strong
winds aloft and favorable moisture/instability profiles suggest a
risk of organized severe storms over southeast TX, much of LA,
western MS, and southern AR on Sunday.

...Day6/Mon thru Day8/Wed - Southeast states...
Beyond Day5, model disagreement becomes too large to confidently
forecast daily areas of severe storm risk.  However, given the
strong upper system and ample low level moisture/instability that
will likely be present, severe risk areas are expected to be
delineated in later updates for early next week over parts of the
southeast states.

..Hart.. 03/29/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, March 29
TORNADO: 10%
HAIL: 30%
WIND: 30%
Thursday, March 30
ANY SEVERE: 45%
Friday, March 31
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, April 1
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, April 2
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, April 3
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, April 4
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, April 5
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected. Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO is a spinoff project of wickedwx.

SWO is just getting started, so you might be interested in the following sites in the meantime: