Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, January 20
Sunday, January 21
Monday, January 22
Tuesday, January 23
Wednesday, January 24
Thursday, January 25
Friday, January 26
Saturday, January 27

Outlook for Saturday, January 20

Outlook Summary

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210037

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.

...01Z Outlook Update...
Isolated lightning was evident for at least a brief period earlier
this afternoon (around 21Z) with convection near/west of Blythe CA. 
This appeared coincident with destabilization near the mid-level
cold core of the significant upper trough now progressing eastward
across the Great Basin toward the southern Rockies, which appears
likely to overspread the lower deserts around the Phoenix
metropolitan area during the 02-04Z time frame.  As it does, it
might not be out of the question that the remnants of the daytime
mixed boundary layer, coupled with perhaps somewhat better low-level
moisture relative to areas to the west, could contribute to
favorable profiles for additional brief/weak thunderstorms. 
However, this risk still seems generally low, with probabilities
less than the minimum 10 percent threshold required for a
categorical thunderstorm outlook.

..Kerr.. 01/21/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, January 21

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening from east Texas into southwest Missouri. A SLGT risk may be warranted for portions of this region if instability is greater than currently expected.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201700

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening from east Texas into southwest Missouri. A SLGT risk may be
warranted for portions of this region if instability is greater than
currently expected.

...TX to MO...

Latest short-range model guidance continues to suggest a strong
southern-stream short-wave trough will eject across the southern
Rockies to a position from western KS into west TX by 22/00z as an
intensifying 500mb speed max translates into OK. In response to this
feature, low-level trajectories will become increasingly favorable
for modified moisture to advance inland across TX before advecting
into the mid-MS Valley ahead of the short wave late in the period.
However, moisture is expected to remain somewhat limited across the
warm sector due to the disruptive influence of the short-wave trough
that is currently ejecting across the northern Gulf Basin. As a
result, a narrow wedge of 50s surface dew points are expected to
return as far north as eastern OK/western AR into southwest MO prior
to frontal passage Sunday evening, with lower 60s dew points
primarily limited to east TX/southern AR/LA.

As the trough shifts east it appears strong boundary-layer heating
will develop across the southern High Plains into central OK during
the afternoon and this should steepen surface-3km lapse rates along
a pre-frontal corridor into eastern OK by 21z where values may
approach 9 C/km. It appears surface-based convection will develop
along a surging dry line over eastern OK/northeast TX between 21-00z
and a strongly forced line of thunderstorms should mature along the
wind shift by early evening. Forecast soundings across the MRGL risk
region suggest near-surface based convection can be expected as far
north as southwest MO. Given the strongest large-scale forcing for
ascent will be maximized over the mid-MS Valley (240m 500mb height
falls during the day) there is reason to believe an organized squall
line will advance across eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/MO region
after dark. Strong frontal forcing favors linear storm mode and
damaging winds are the primary threat, especially as 500mb flow
intensifies to near 100kt during the latter half of the period. Even
so, a tornado or two can not be ruled out as forecast shear would
support organized rotating updrafts. Have opted to maintain 5%
severe probs given the relatively benign thermodynamic profiles, but
a SLGT risk may be warranted if expected buoyancy improves.

..Darrow.. 01/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, January 22

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible as a cold front moves through portions of the Southeast on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200806

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible as a cold front moves
through portions of the Southeast on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Mature cyclone centered over the central Plains at the beginning of
the period is expected to move northeastward through the middle MS
Valley into the Lower OH Valley during the period. At the same time,
attendant surface low will take a similar track just ahead of the
upper system while an associated cold front sweeps across the
Southeast. Warm sector ahead of this cold front will become
increasingly separated from the parent upper system over time.
However, a corridor of low 60s dewpoints and marginal instability
will still support thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast. A
severe storm or two is possible. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
as far north as the TN Valley where cooler temperatures aloft will
support marginal instability in the absence of better low-level
moisture.

...Portions of Southeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
along and immediately behind a cold front expected to extend from
near MEM southwestward to near LCH. While the most unstable air will
remain offshore, enough instability will exist for thunderstorms to
persist along this front as it continues eastward through the
region. Given the strength of the wind fields, some of these storms
could produce damaging wind gusts. Primary uncertainty with this
forecast is the strength and persistence of any surface-based
updrafts, particularly given the anticipated speed of the front and
limited daytime heating.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, January 23

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200907
SPC AC 200907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in relatively good agreement that the mature
cyclone traversing the central Plains and middle MS valley over the
weekend and Monday will weaken and become more progressive on
Tuesday, opening up as it moves through the upper Great Lakes and
Northeast. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this system across
portions of the VA Piedmont into the VA Tidewater Tuesday morning.
Given the strength of the flow, a few of these storms may be severe.
However, uncertainty regarding occurrence and coverage is too low to
delineate any outlook areas.

By mid-week, southern-stream shortwave trough will move slowly
across the southern Plains while upper ridging progresses across the
remainder of the Plains and MS Valley. Moisture return ahead of the
system expected to move into the Plains late Friday is now progged
to be more stunted than in previous guidance, largely a result of
more persistent surface ridging across the eastern CONUS. Based on
the most recent guidance, low severe thunderstorm potential exists
from Tuesday through Saturday.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, January 24

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200907
SPC AC 200907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in relatively good agreement that the mature
cyclone traversing the central Plains and middle MS valley over the
weekend and Monday will weaken and become more progressive on
Tuesday, opening up as it moves through the upper Great Lakes and
Northeast. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this system across
portions of the VA Piedmont into the VA Tidewater Tuesday morning.
Given the strength of the flow, a few of these storms may be severe.
However, uncertainty regarding occurrence and coverage is too low to
delineate any outlook areas.

By mid-week, southern-stream shortwave trough will move slowly
across the southern Plains while upper ridging progresses across the
remainder of the Plains and MS Valley. Moisture return ahead of the
system expected to move into the Plains late Friday is now progged
to be more stunted than in previous guidance, largely a result of
more persistent surface ridging across the eastern CONUS. Based on
the most recent guidance, low severe thunderstorm potential exists
from Tuesday through Saturday.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, January 25

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200907
SPC AC 200907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in relatively good agreement that the mature
cyclone traversing the central Plains and middle MS valley over the
weekend and Monday will weaken and become more progressive on
Tuesday, opening up as it moves through the upper Great Lakes and
Northeast. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this system across
portions of the VA Piedmont into the VA Tidewater Tuesday morning.
Given the strength of the flow, a few of these storms may be severe.
However, uncertainty regarding occurrence and coverage is too low to
delineate any outlook areas.

By mid-week, southern-stream shortwave trough will move slowly
across the southern Plains while upper ridging progresses across the
remainder of the Plains and MS Valley. Moisture return ahead of the
system expected to move into the Plains late Friday is now progged
to be more stunted than in previous guidance, largely a result of
more persistent surface ridging across the eastern CONUS. Based on
the most recent guidance, low severe thunderstorm potential exists
from Tuesday through Saturday.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, January 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200907
SPC AC 200907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in relatively good agreement that the mature
cyclone traversing the central Plains and middle MS valley over the
weekend and Monday will weaken and become more progressive on
Tuesday, opening up as it moves through the upper Great Lakes and
Northeast. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this system across
portions of the VA Piedmont into the VA Tidewater Tuesday morning.
Given the strength of the flow, a few of these storms may be severe.
However, uncertainty regarding occurrence and coverage is too low to
delineate any outlook areas.

By mid-week, southern-stream shortwave trough will move slowly
across the southern Plains while upper ridging progresses across the
remainder of the Plains and MS Valley. Moisture return ahead of the
system expected to move into the Plains late Friday is now progged
to be more stunted than in previous guidance, largely a result of
more persistent surface ridging across the eastern CONUS. Based on
the most recent guidance, low severe thunderstorm potential exists
from Tuesday through Saturday.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, January 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200907
SPC AC 200907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in relatively good agreement that the mature
cyclone traversing the central Plains and middle MS valley over the
weekend and Monday will weaken and become more progressive on
Tuesday, opening up as it moves through the upper Great Lakes and
Northeast. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this system across
portions of the VA Piedmont into the VA Tidewater Tuesday morning.
Given the strength of the flow, a few of these storms may be severe.
However, uncertainty regarding occurrence and coverage is too low to
delineate any outlook areas.

By mid-week, southern-stream shortwave trough will move slowly
across the southern Plains while upper ridging progresses across the
remainder of the Plains and MS Valley. Moisture return ahead of the
system expected to move into the Plains late Friday is now progged
to be more stunted than in previous guidance, largely a result of
more persistent surface ridging across the eastern CONUS. Based on
the most recent guidance, low severe thunderstorm potential exists
from Tuesday through Saturday.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, January 20
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, January 21
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, January 22
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, January 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, January 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, January 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, January 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, January 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected. Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.