Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, February 21
Wednesday, February 22
Thursday, February 23
Friday, February 24
Saturday, February 25
Sunday, February 26
Monday, February 27
Tuesday, February 28

Outlook for Tuesday, February 21

Outlook Summary

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the lower Mississippi Valley region eastward along the Gulf Coastal Plain, and from northern California to parts of Wyoming and the northern High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211944

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
from the lower Mississippi Valley region eastward along the Gulf
Coastal Plain, and from northern California to parts of Wyoming and
the northern High Plains.

...Gulf Coast...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue in two distinct
regimes -- one in the warm conveyor crossing the Florida panhandle
and another associated with the cold core mid-level circulation over
the lower Mississippi Valley. The only change with this outlook is
the removal of thunder for locations to the north/west of the
forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level low.

..Picca/Broyles.. 02/21/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

...Lower Mississippi Valley and Eastern Gulf Coast...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along with and in advance of an
upper low that will move eastward along the Gulf Coast this
afternoon and tonight. Cold temperatures aloft will support some
small hail across portions of southern LA this afternoon as modest
heating/destabilization occurs, though low tropopause heights in the
vicinity of the upper cyclone will limit the depth of convection and
preclude any substantial severe hail risk. 

...Northern CA/Southern OR into the Great Basin/Northern Rockies...
As an upper trough approaches the Pacific Coast, generally weak
convection is expected across a broad area from the northern
CA/southern OR coast eastward into the Great Basin and Northern
Rockies, with isolated thunderstorms possible where convection
becomes sufficiently deep. Somewhat greater instability across
portions of the northern CA coast into the northern Sacramento
Valley may support some thunderstorms capable of small hail and
locally gusty winds, though generally weak effective shear
magnitudes should limit storm organization. 

...Portions of the Northern High Plains...
A shortwave trough over portions of the Northwest will move quickly
into the northern High Plains this afternoon and evening. Ahead of
this feature, weak but sufficient instability will support
fast-moving clusters of convection later this afternoon and tonight
from central/eastern MT into ND. Relatively strong low/midlevel flow
and effective shear may support locally gusty winds and perhaps some
small hail with the strongest of these clusters.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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Outlook for Wednesday, February 22

Outlook Summary

Severe weather is not expected across the contiguous United States on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211722

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the contiguous United States
on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced west/southwesterly mid-level flow will stretch
from southern/central California to the Upper Midwest during the
day, as a trough continues to overspread the Pacific Northwest.
Farther east, another impulse will translate eastward from the
northern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. Across the southeastern
US, a weakening mid/upper low will cross the Florida peninsula late
in the period. The surface response will feature a cold front
gradually progressing southward over portions of the southern Great
Basin, while another front pushes southeastward across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest.

...Florida Peninsula...
Despite the weakening nature of the mid/upper low, cooling aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will support enough buoyancy for
scattered thunderstorms across the peninsula during the day.
Relatively weak low-level flow and marginal buoyancy are expected to
preclude a threat of severe thunderstorms.

...Pacific Northwest...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -34 to -38 C) will come ashore
the coast during the period. Despite cool surface conditions and low
dew points, steep low/mid-level lapse rates should encourage the
development of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.

..Picca/Broyles.. 02/21/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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Outlook for Thursday, February 23

Outlook Summary

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the Midwest primarily after sunset Thursday night into early Friday morning. A few storms are possible along the east coast of Florida.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210821

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the Midwest
primarily after sunset Thursday night into early Friday morning.  A
few storms are possible along the east coast of Florida.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough will feature a broad belt of strong
cyclonic flow moving through its base from the Desert Southwest
through the central and southern Great Plains and into the Midwest
on Thursday.  A shortwave disturbance is forecast to move from the
central Rockies into IA by early Friday morning.  In the low levels,
a surface low will develop northeastward from the central High
Plains into the middle MS Valley coincident with the aforementioned
mid-level impulse.  A warm front will extend eastward from the low
while a cold front moves southeast across KS and much of OK. 
Elsewhere, a weak mid-level low will slowly meander to the east of
the FL peninsula.

...middle MS Valley...
Marginal low-level moisture over the Mid South and lower MS Valley
will advect northward during the day within the warm conveyer of the
central U.S. cyclone.  Models suggest dewpoints ranging from 54-58
degrees F will reach the lower MO Valley and middle MS Valley region
by early evening.  A southwesterly low level jet is forecast to
strengthen to 50+ kt after dark across MO/IL with a corresponding
increase in isentropic ascent.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are forecast to develop primarily on and north of the warm front.  A
cap will likely limit storm development southward over the Ozarks. 
Although models show strong shear and marginally unstable profiles,
notable differences still exist amongst medium-range models on the
evolution of a mid-level vorticity maximum and surface low track
over the Midwest.  Given the model variability and uncertainty
regarding convective evolution late in the Day 3 period, will defer
to later outlooks about the possible inclusion of low-severe
probabilities over a portion of this region.

..Smith.. 02/21/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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Outlook for Friday, February 24

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210928
SPC AC 210928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The concern for severe weather during the Friday-Tuesday period will
likely concentrate on Friday (Day 4) across the OH Valley and
southern Great Lakes regions.  A strong mid-level speed maximum is
forecast to strengthen and move over the aforementioned regions on
Friday.  There remains considerable model spread in the timing and
placement of the surface low track.  To the south of a warm front
and east of an eastward-sweeping cold front, a marginally buoyant
warm sector is forecast to develop and result in a low CAPE/high
shear environment.  The primary threat with the more intense
thunderstorms that develop will be damaging winds.  By Saturday (Day
5), the cold front will move east across the lower Great Lakes and
Mid-Atlantic states with surface high pressure building over the MS
Valley and Gulf Coast states.  Models indicate modifying Gulf
moisture may return northward on Monday and Tuesday (Days 7-8) in
response to lee troughing as another in a series of mid-level
troughs develop over the western states.

..Smith.. 02/21/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Outlook for Saturday, February 25

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210928
SPC AC 210928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The concern for severe weather during the Friday-Tuesday period will
likely concentrate on Friday (Day 4) across the OH Valley and
southern Great Lakes regions.  A strong mid-level speed maximum is
forecast to strengthen and move over the aforementioned regions on
Friday.  There remains considerable model spread in the timing and
placement of the surface low track.  To the south of a warm front
and east of an eastward-sweeping cold front, a marginally buoyant
warm sector is forecast to develop and result in a low CAPE/high
shear environment.  The primary threat with the more intense
thunderstorms that develop will be damaging winds.  By Saturday (Day
5), the cold front will move east across the lower Great Lakes and
Mid-Atlantic states with surface high pressure building over the MS
Valley and Gulf Coast states.  Models indicate modifying Gulf
moisture may return northward on Monday and Tuesday (Days 7-8) in
response to lee troughing as another in a series of mid-level
troughs develop over the western states.

..Smith.. 02/21/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, February 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210928
SPC AC 210928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The concern for severe weather during the Friday-Tuesday period will
likely concentrate on Friday (Day 4) across the OH Valley and
southern Great Lakes regions.  A strong mid-level speed maximum is
forecast to strengthen and move over the aforementioned regions on
Friday.  There remains considerable model spread in the timing and
placement of the surface low track.  To the south of a warm front
and east of an eastward-sweeping cold front, a marginally buoyant
warm sector is forecast to develop and result in a low CAPE/high
shear environment.  The primary threat with the more intense
thunderstorms that develop will be damaging winds.  By Saturday (Day
5), the cold front will move east across the lower Great Lakes and
Mid-Atlantic states with surface high pressure building over the MS
Valley and Gulf Coast states.  Models indicate modifying Gulf
moisture may return northward on Monday and Tuesday (Days 7-8) in
response to lee troughing as another in a series of mid-level
troughs develop over the western states.

..Smith.. 02/21/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, February 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210928
SPC AC 210928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The concern for severe weather during the Friday-Tuesday period will
likely concentrate on Friday (Day 4) across the OH Valley and
southern Great Lakes regions.  A strong mid-level speed maximum is
forecast to strengthen and move over the aforementioned regions on
Friday.  There remains considerable model spread in the timing and
placement of the surface low track.  To the south of a warm front
and east of an eastward-sweeping cold front, a marginally buoyant
warm sector is forecast to develop and result in a low CAPE/high
shear environment.  The primary threat with the more intense
thunderstorms that develop will be damaging winds.  By Saturday (Day
5), the cold front will move east across the lower Great Lakes and
Mid-Atlantic states with surface high pressure building over the MS
Valley and Gulf Coast states.  Models indicate modifying Gulf
moisture may return northward on Monday and Tuesday (Days 7-8) in
response to lee troughing as another in a series of mid-level
troughs develop over the western states.

..Smith.. 02/21/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, February 28

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210928
SPC AC 210928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The concern for severe weather during the Friday-Tuesday period will
likely concentrate on Friday (Day 4) across the OH Valley and
southern Great Lakes regions.  A strong mid-level speed maximum is
forecast to strengthen and move over the aforementioned regions on
Friday.  There remains considerable model spread in the timing and
placement of the surface low track.  To the south of a warm front
and east of an eastward-sweeping cold front, a marginally buoyant
warm sector is forecast to develop and result in a low CAPE/high
shear environment.  The primary threat with the more intense
thunderstorms that develop will be damaging winds.  By Saturday (Day
5), the cold front will move east across the lower Great Lakes and
Mid-Atlantic states with surface high pressure building over the MS
Valley and Gulf Coast states.  Models indicate modifying Gulf
moisture may return northward on Monday and Tuesday (Days 7-8) in
response to lee troughing as another in a series of mid-level
troughs develop over the western states.

..Smith.. 02/21/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, February 21
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Wednesday, February 22
ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, February 23
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, February 24
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, February 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, February 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, February 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, February 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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