Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, November 18
Sunday, November 19
Monday, November 20
Tuesday, November 21
Wednesday, November 22
Thursday, November 23
Friday, November 24
Saturday, November 25

Outlook for Saturday, November 18

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, marginal hail, or a brief tornado will be possible, mainly this afternoon across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181234

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE TN
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, marginal hail, or a
brief tornado will be possible, mainly this afternoon across parts
of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions.

...OH/TN Valley regions through late evening...
A surface cyclone in MO this morning will deepen while moving
east-northeastward across the OH Valley to the lower Great Lakes by
tonight, in advance of an amplifying midlevel shortwave trough.  An
associated surface cold front will surge eastward from MO/AR this
morning to the Appalachians by early tonight.  Boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a narrow corridor of weak
buoyancy in the pre-frontal warm sector.  However, clouds will limit
surface heating and midlevel lapse rates will weaken with eastward
extent, limiting the degree of warm sector buoyancy.

Ongoing elevated convection in the zone of stronger forcing for
ascent (in advance of the surface cyclone) will persist into the
day, with some threat for isolated large hail given the lingering
steep lapse rate feed from the west-southwest.  Otherwise, a narrow
band of low-topped convection should form by midday in the band of
ascent along the cold front as ascent/moistening weakens the cap,
and then move quickly eastward through the afternoon/evening across
the OH/TN Valley regions.  Though buoyancy will remain weak, 50-60
kt flow just above the surface and strong low-level shear will
contribute to the threat for damaging winds, and perhaps an embedded
tornado or two, with the forced band of convection.  The threat for
damaging winds should diminish by late evening as the cold front
overturns the remaining weakly unstable warm sector.

..Thompson/Peters.. 11/18/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, November 19

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180539

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. Sunday.

...Discussion...

Early Sunday a cold front will extend from a deepening surface low
over the Northeast States, along the Atlantic Seaboard, through the
northern FL Peninsula. While a few showers might accompany the front
as it continues south across FL, shallow frontal forcing and
relatively warm temperatures aloft suggest the thermodynamic
environment will probably remain insufficient for lightning
activity. Otherwise, a large area of high pressure will contribute
to offshore flow and stable conditions over most of the country. An
exception will be over the lower Great Lakes where a lightning
strike or two cannot be ruled out with shallow lake-effect
convection.

..Dial.. 11/18/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, November 20

Outlook Summary

A few thunderstorms will be possible over the southern Florida Peninsula Monday night, but no severe weather is expected.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180826

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible over the southern Florida
Peninsula Monday night, but no severe weather is expected.

...South Florida...

A front is forecast to stall over the southern FL Peninsula with the
approach of a low-amplitude southern-stream upper trough that will
move through the Gulf Monday night. Richer low-level moisture with
upper 60s F dewpoints in vicinity of the front, moistening
thermodynamic profiles, and presence of weak warm advection may
contribute to weak, but sufficient, destabilization for a few
showers and thunderstorms over south FL, primarily Monday night.

..Dial.. 11/18/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, November 21

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180949
SPC AC 180949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most ensemble members indicate that in the mean, the large-scale
pattern will remain dominated by a trough over the eastern states
through much of the day 4-8 period, limiting the potential for
significant low-level moisture return and severe storms over most of
the country. By day 6 some solutions continue to indicate an upper
low will cutoff over the Gulf, but models have not been consistent
regarding this unusual evolution, suggesting low predictability in
the day 6-8 time frame.

..Dial.. 11/18/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, November 22

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180949
SPC AC 180949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most ensemble members indicate that in the mean, the large-scale
pattern will remain dominated by a trough over the eastern states
through much of the day 4-8 period, limiting the potential for
significant low-level moisture return and severe storms over most of
the country. By day 6 some solutions continue to indicate an upper
low will cutoff over the Gulf, but models have not been consistent
regarding this unusual evolution, suggesting low predictability in
the day 6-8 time frame.

..Dial.. 11/18/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, November 23

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180949
SPC AC 180949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most ensemble members indicate that in the mean, the large-scale
pattern will remain dominated by a trough over the eastern states
through much of the day 4-8 period, limiting the potential for
significant low-level moisture return and severe storms over most of
the country. By day 6 some solutions continue to indicate an upper
low will cutoff over the Gulf, but models have not been consistent
regarding this unusual evolution, suggesting low predictability in
the day 6-8 time frame.

..Dial.. 11/18/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, November 24

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180949
SPC AC 180949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most ensemble members indicate that in the mean, the large-scale
pattern will remain dominated by a trough over the eastern states
through much of the day 4-8 period, limiting the potential for
significant low-level moisture return and severe storms over most of
the country. By day 6 some solutions continue to indicate an upper
low will cutoff over the Gulf, but models have not been consistent
regarding this unusual evolution, suggesting low predictability in
the day 6-8 time frame.

..Dial.. 11/18/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, November 25

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180949
SPC AC 180949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most ensemble members indicate that in the mean, the large-scale
pattern will remain dominated by a trough over the eastern states
through much of the day 4-8 period, limiting the potential for
significant low-level moisture return and severe storms over most of
the country. By day 6 some solutions continue to indicate an upper
low will cutoff over the Gulf, but models have not been consistent
regarding this unusual evolution, suggesting low predictability in
the day 6-8 time frame.

..Dial.. 11/18/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, November 18
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 15%
Sunday, November 19
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, November 20
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, November 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, November 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, November 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, November 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected. Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.