Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, July 24
Tuesday, July 25
Wednesday, July 26
Thursday, July 27
Friday, July 28
Saturday, July 29
Sunday, July 30

Outlook for Monday, July 24

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong/severe storms may occur over portions of the northern Plains vicinity, as well as across parts of the Northeast States, Mid-Atlantic, and Mid-South.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240552

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE NORTHEAST STATES AND MID ATLANTIC AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe storms may occur over portions of the
northern Plains vicinity, as well as across parts of the Northeast
States, Mid-Atlantic, and Mid-South.

...Synopsis...

Synoptic upper trough will continue through the Northeast U.S.
today, while an upstream trough advances through the Canadian
Prairies. A low-amplitude impulse now moving along the WY/MT border
will continue through the Dakotas and weaken. Cutoff upper low
should remain over northern CA. 

At the surface a quasi-stationary front will persist from NY to
southern New England. A cold front will move into the Middle
Atlantic area with trailing portion likely to stall over the TN
Valley.  Farther west a cold front will move through the northern
Plains in association with the Canadian shortwave trough. Warm front
will lift slowly north through the northern Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley.

...Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley area...

Modified continental-polar air with dewpoints generally in the 50s
to near 60F will advect into the northern Plains beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates associated with a warm elevated-mixed layer,
contributing to destabilization. The atmosphere in this region
should become moderately unstable, but strong convective inhibition
may limit surface-based thunderstorm initiation until later this
afternoon when a few storms could form over central SD in
association with the weakening shortwave trough. Other storms might
also develop farther west within the more deeply mixed regime across
the western Dakotas and along the southeast-advancing cold front.
Given generally weak forcing aloft and moderate to strong convective
inhibition, storm coverage will probably remain isolated, but the
thermodynamic environment would support a conditional risk for
downburst winds and hail. Any storms that form during the day will
likely diminish with loss of heating. However, additional storms may
occur overnight across MN within zone of isentropic ascent north of
the warm front. Some of this activity could pose a risk for
marginally severe hail.  

...Northeast States and Mid Atlantic...

In wake of early morning convection associated with lead shortwave
trough, storms will once again develop along and ahead of the cold
front in the moist, weakly capped warm sector. Pockets of diabatic
warming will promote destabilization of the boundary layer, but the
thermodynamic environment will remain weak in most areas due in part
to poor mid-level lapse rates. Westerly unidirectional winds aloft
will reside across this region supporting 35-45 kt effective bulk
shear. A few storms might develop some mid-level updraft rotation
and evolve into bowing structures with a threat for a few locally
strong to damaging wind gusts. However, expected weak thermodynamic
environment should remain a limiting factor for a robust severe
risk. 

...Tennessee Valley area and Southeast States...

The atmosphere in this region will become moderately unstable, and
storms will likely redevelop along and south of the cold front. Weak
vertical shear will promote multicell and pulse storms. A few of the
stronger storms might produce locally strong to marginally severe
wind gusts from mid afternoon to early evening.

..Dial/Dean.. 07/24/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, July 25

Outlook Summary

Strong/locally severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the north-central U.S. Tuesday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240555

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS NEBRASKA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions
of the north-central U.S. Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
As an upper trough across the Northeast moves east and eventually
offshore, and a second trough lingers near the West Coast, ridging
will prevail across much of the country.  During the second half of
the period, this ridging will become suppressed over the
north-central U.S., as weak short-wave troughing moving
east-northeast out of the Rockies and into the Plains phases loosely
with a low/trough crossing the Canadian Prairie.  

At the surface, a cold front -- associated with the aforementioned
Prairie/Plains upper troughing -- is forecast to move southeast
across the northern Plains, eventually extending from the upper
Mississippi Valley area southwestward across the central Plains by
late in the period.  Elsewhere, a weak/lingering front extending
from VA/NC and westward into the mid South will drift very slowly
southward, as surface high pressure shifts slowly east across the
Great Lakes into the Northeast.

...North-central states...
Daytime heating of a moistening warm sector will support substantial
diurnal destabilization, with afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values
averaging 1500 to 2500 J/kg expected to evolve near/ahead of the
advancing cold front.  Thus will likely prove sufficient, in
combination with ascent focused near the front, to allow isolated to
scattered storms to develop from the Minnesota vicinity
west-southwest along the front to the northern High Plains area.  

The strongest mid-level westerlies are forecast to remain across the
North Dakota/northern Minnesota area, though a weaker/secondary
speed max shifting out of the Rockies suggests that ample flow for
isolated/organized cells will extend as far southwest as eastern
Wyoming and into Nebraska.  As such, will maintain a broad area of
5%/MRGL risk across the north-central U.S., with greatest (SLGT
risk) probabilities focused over the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota
through the afternoon and early evening.  With time, upscale growth
of storms into one or two MCSs is possible, with risk possibly
spreading east of the upper Mississippi Valley later in the evening.
 Convection is expected to diminish overnight, due to a decrease in
instability -- both diurnally, and with eastward extent into the
upper Great Lakes area.

..Goss.. 07/24/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, July 26

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the upper Great Lakes and Midwest regions Wednesday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240723

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE ADJACENT MIDWEST REGION...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of
the upper Great Lakes and Midwest regions Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Upper flow-field amplification is forecast across the U.S. this
period, as phased troughing moving across the Great Lakes region
expands/strengthens, and a corresponding intensification of ridging
occurs over the West.  As the western ridge expands, a short-wave
trough moving slowly inland over the West will weaken while being
shunted northeast across the northwest states.

At the surface, a cold front will continue making southeast progress
across the central third of the country, and should extend from the
Great Lakes southwest across the Midwest to the Oklahoma/northwest
Texas region by the end of the period.

...Great Lakes/Midwest...
Convection -- and possible/isolated severe risk -- should be ongoing
across northern and western portions of the risk area at the start
of the period, near/ahead of the advancing cold front.  Warm-sector
destabilization will likely be hindered in many areas due to the
ongoing clouds/precipitation, especially across portions of the
Great Lakes area.  Still, afternoon intensification of storms is
expected as the airmass diurnally destabilizes from the Wisconsin
area southwest into the Iowa vicinity.  Storm organization will be
aided by relatively strong flow aloft, veering from southerly to
southwesterly with height and increasing to 40-plus kt.  At this
time, hail and locally damaging winds appear to be the main risks,
with storms expected to spread east/southeast through the evening
hours before diurnally weakening overnight.

..Goss.. 07/24/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, July 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230837
SPC AC 230837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in general large-scale agreement at this
time, that very gradual but substantial amplification of the upper
flow field will occur over the U.S. during the medium-range period,
with eventual establishment of troughing over roughly the eastern
half of the country and ridging over the west.

The initial upper feature which looks to begin the process of
carving out eastern U.S. troughing is an upper low/trough crossing
Ontario at the start of the period.  At the surface, a low
associated with the upper system is progged to cross southern
portions of Hudson Bay/James Bay, with a trailing cold front to
cross the upper Great Lakes/upper Midwest/central Plains region of
the U.S. Day 4/Wednesday.  With stronger flow aloft to reside over
Ontario and the upper Great Lakes area, but stronger instability
likely to remain farther southwest along the front, the corridor
from roughly upper Michigan southwest to Iowa appears at this time
to be the core of greatest likelihood for isolated severe risk.

As the system shifts east toward the northeast U.S., less confidence
with respect to degree of instability which may precede the front
precludes inclusion of a Day 5 area at this time.  

Meanwhile, limited/isolated severe risk may spread slowly east
across the northern Intermountain and northern Plains Days 4-6, as a
weak short-wave trough crests the developing western U.S. ridge and
eventually digs southeast into the evolving eastern U.S. trough
through the end of the period.  However, at this time the degree of
risk associated with this system does not warrant introduction of
areal highlights, mainly due to uncertainty regarding quality of the
CAPE/shear parameter space likely to precede the system.

..Goss.. 07/23/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, July 28

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230837
SPC AC 230837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in general large-scale agreement at this
time, that very gradual but substantial amplification of the upper
flow field will occur over the U.S. during the medium-range period,
with eventual establishment of troughing over roughly the eastern
half of the country and ridging over the west.

The initial upper feature which looks to begin the process of
carving out eastern U.S. troughing is an upper low/trough crossing
Ontario at the start of the period.  At the surface, a low
associated with the upper system is progged to cross southern
portions of Hudson Bay/James Bay, with a trailing cold front to
cross the upper Great Lakes/upper Midwest/central Plains region of
the U.S. Day 4/Wednesday.  With stronger flow aloft to reside over
Ontario and the upper Great Lakes area, but stronger instability
likely to remain farther southwest along the front, the corridor
from roughly upper Michigan southwest to Iowa appears at this time
to be the core of greatest likelihood for isolated severe risk.

As the system shifts east toward the northeast U.S., less confidence
with respect to degree of instability which may precede the front
precludes inclusion of a Day 5 area at this time.  

Meanwhile, limited/isolated severe risk may spread slowly east
across the northern Intermountain and northern Plains Days 4-6, as a
weak short-wave trough crests the developing western U.S. ridge and
eventually digs southeast into the evolving eastern U.S. trough
through the end of the period.  However, at this time the degree of
risk associated with this system does not warrant introduction of
areal highlights, mainly due to uncertainty regarding quality of the
CAPE/shear parameter space likely to precede the system.

..Goss.. 07/23/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, July 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230837
SPC AC 230837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in general large-scale agreement at this
time, that very gradual but substantial amplification of the upper
flow field will occur over the U.S. during the medium-range period,
with eventual establishment of troughing over roughly the eastern
half of the country and ridging over the west.

The initial upper feature which looks to begin the process of
carving out eastern U.S. troughing is an upper low/trough crossing
Ontario at the start of the period.  At the surface, a low
associated with the upper system is progged to cross southern
portions of Hudson Bay/James Bay, with a trailing cold front to
cross the upper Great Lakes/upper Midwest/central Plains region of
the U.S. Day 4/Wednesday.  With stronger flow aloft to reside over
Ontario and the upper Great Lakes area, but stronger instability
likely to remain farther southwest along the front, the corridor
from roughly upper Michigan southwest to Iowa appears at this time
to be the core of greatest likelihood for isolated severe risk.

As the system shifts east toward the northeast U.S., less confidence
with respect to degree of instability which may precede the front
precludes inclusion of a Day 5 area at this time.  

Meanwhile, limited/isolated severe risk may spread slowly east
across the northern Intermountain and northern Plains Days 4-6, as a
weak short-wave trough crests the developing western U.S. ridge and
eventually digs southeast into the evolving eastern U.S. trough
through the end of the period.  However, at this time the degree of
risk associated with this system does not warrant introduction of
areal highlights, mainly due to uncertainty regarding quality of the
CAPE/shear parameter space likely to precede the system.

..Goss.. 07/23/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, July 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230837
SPC AC 230837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in general large-scale agreement at this
time, that very gradual but substantial amplification of the upper
flow field will occur over the U.S. during the medium-range period,
with eventual establishment of troughing over roughly the eastern
half of the country and ridging over the west.

The initial upper feature which looks to begin the process of
carving out eastern U.S. troughing is an upper low/trough crossing
Ontario at the start of the period.  At the surface, a low
associated with the upper system is progged to cross southern
portions of Hudson Bay/James Bay, with a trailing cold front to
cross the upper Great Lakes/upper Midwest/central Plains region of
the U.S. Day 4/Wednesday.  With stronger flow aloft to reside over
Ontario and the upper Great Lakes area, but stronger instability
likely to remain farther southwest along the front, the corridor
from roughly upper Michigan southwest to Iowa appears at this time
to be the core of greatest likelihood for isolated severe risk.

As the system shifts east toward the northeast U.S., less confidence
with respect to degree of instability which may precede the front
precludes inclusion of a Day 5 area at this time.  

Meanwhile, limited/isolated severe risk may spread slowly east
across the northern Intermountain and northern Plains Days 4-6, as a
weak short-wave trough crests the developing western U.S. ridge and
eventually digs southeast into the evolving eastern U.S. trough
through the end of the period.  However, at this time the degree of
risk associated with this system does not warrant introduction of
areal highlights, mainly due to uncertainty regarding quality of the
CAPE/shear parameter space likely to precede the system.

..Goss.. 07/23/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Monday, July 24
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Tuesday, July 25
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, July 26
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, July 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, July 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected. Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.