Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, May 26
Saturday, May 27
Sunday, May 28
Monday, May 29
Tuesday, May 30
Wednesday, May 31
Thursday, June 1
Friday, June 2

Outlook for Friday, May 26

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts are expected over the central High Plains. Severe storms capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two are also forecast for parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 262000

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SLIGHT RISK...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
OHIO VALLEY SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts
are expected over the central High Plains.  Severe storms capable of
damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two are also forecast
for parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

...Discussion...
The only changes this forecast update are the following:
1) Have added a small 5% tornado risk and significant hail area over
parts of northeastern CO with developing storms near the Palmer
Divide.  Hodographs are forecast to enlarge this afternoon which may
lead to an area with a slightly higher tornado risk than the
remaining portion of the central High Plains.
2) Added a small significant hail area for portions of central IL to
the east of ongoing storms.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track.

..Smith.. 05/26/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

...IL/IN/OH...
Morning satellite loops show a well-defined MCV over eastern IA. 
Strong heating/destabilization is occurring along the southeast
flank of this system, with dewpoints climbing into the 60s.  By mid
afternoon, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg are expected as far
northeast as from north-central IL into central IN and western OH. 
Thunderstorms are likely to develop ahead of the MCV, with 12z CAM
solutions strongly favoring a bowing MCS moving across central IN
into western OH.  While damaging winds are likely the main threat,
increasing low-level vertical shear by late afternoon may also
contribute to some risk of a few tornadoes.  The activity should
weaken as it moves into more stable air over central OH this
evening.

...Eastern CO/Southeast WY/Western NE/Western KS...
Models remain consistent in the development of widely scattered
supercell storms from southeast WY into much of eastern CO this
afternoon and evening.  Low-level winds will be southeasterly,
providing some upslope component.  However, these low-level wind
fields will be rather weak suggesting that large hail is the main
threat.  It appears unlikely that organized storms will build as far
east into central KS as earlier forecast.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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Outlook for Saturday, May 27

Outlook Summary

Widespread severe gusts are likely from the Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio Valley. Large to giant hail, tornadoes, and wind damage are possible for parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and eastward into portions of the Ohio Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 45%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261736

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF KENTUCKY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
STATES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe gusts are likely from the Ozark Plateau into the
lower Ohio Valley.  Large to giant hail, tornadoes, and wind damage
are possible for parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and eastward into
portions of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
A closed 500-mb low will meander southeast across Manitoba while a
mid-level trough will move from WY/UT east into the central High
Plains by Saturday evening and into the Upper Midwest/central Plains
by early Sunday.  A belt of strong west-southwesterly mid- to
high-level flow will extend from OK/TX eastward through the Ozarks
and into the OH Valley/southern Appalachians.  At the surface, a low
near the OK/KS border will develop east into the lower MO Valley
during the afternoon with a cold front extending from eastern KS
southwest into northern OK and arcing west into the TX Panhandle.  A
triple point near north-central/northeast OK is forecast with a
dryline extending south near I-35 in OK/TX during the late
afternoon.

...Ozark Plateau into the lower OH Valley...
Very rich low-level moisture will advect northward into the region
south of a west-east frontal zone.  A very unstable to extremely
unstable airmass will likely develop across at least the southern
portion of this region.  Several scenarios are possible regarding
the severe threat for this region, especially over MO.  Model
guidance appears to be converging towards the development of a
severe MCS moving east from MO into the lower OH Valley.  Details
regarding timing and evolution are still somewhat uncertain at this
time and possibilities include the following:
1) A remnant MCV from overnight Friday storm activity may serve as
an initiating feature for a thunderstorm cluster to grow upscale.
2) Supercells with all severe hazards (including tornadoes)
transitioning to a severe convective windstorm across the Ozarks.
Given the overall environment, it appears significant severe with
all hazards is possible.  The veering of a southwesterly LLJ into
the OH Valley during the evening will likely aid in maintaining a
severe threat into the evening.

...OK-TX dryline...
An initial strong capping inversion will lead to extreme instability
developing by mid afternoon to the east of the dryline over eastern
OK into northeast TX.  Rich low-level moisture characterized by
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios 17-19 g/kg beneath very steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 degrees C/km) will result in (4500-6500
J/kg MLCAPE per forecast soundings.  Despite generally weak forcing
for ascent, the combination of eroding MLCINH due to strong heating
and perhaps some contribution due to a 55-kt 500 mb speed max moving
over OK during the late afternoon will contribute to the cap locally
eroding and isolated thunderstorm development from northeast OK
south into north-central TX between 21-02Z.  Strong effective shear
(50 kt) and extreme buoyancy will rapidly favor supercell
development early in the convective life cycle.  Giant hail (3.0-4.5
inches in diameter) is possible with any established supercell. 
NAM/GFS forecast soundings show gradual veering and strengthening of
the wind profile in the lowest 2-3 km --- yielding 100-250 m2/s2 0-1
km SRH from south to north across this region.  The possibility
exists for significant tornadoes with supercells, especially across
the northeastern quarter of OK into southeastern KS and into MO.  A
cluster of storms will probably evolve during the evening with
hail/wind becoming the predominant risk late Saturday night as
activity moves east into AR.  

...Southern Appalachians...
Models show moderate buoyancy developing during the day with
deep-layer shear supportive of organized thunderstorms.  Hail/wind
will be the primary hazards with weakening of the storms and a
corresponding decrease in severe risk associated with cooling during
of the boundary layer during the evening.

..Smith.. 05/26/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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Outlook for Sunday, May 28

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible on Sunday across parts of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Large hail and wind damage will also be possible across parts of the southern Plains and Arklatex.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260721

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for large hail, wind
damage and a few tornadoes will be possible on Sunday across parts
of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Large hail and wind damage
will also be possible across parts of the southern Plains and
Arklatex.

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid to
upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday as a cold front advances
southeastward into the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist
airmass is forecast ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F. This should be enough for the development of
moderate instability by afternoon across prats of western Tennessee,
Kentucky, southern Indiana and Ohio. Model forecasts along this
corridor generally develop scattered convection during the late
afternoon as the upper-level trough approaches. GFS forecast
soundings at 00Z/Monday from Memphis, Tennessee northeastward to
Louisville, Kentucky show MLCAPE values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg with
0-6 km shear values from 40 to 50 kt. If the convection can develop
into clusters with discrete cells, then the environment would
support supercells with large hail, wind damage and possibly a
tornado threat. If convection tends to organize into line segments,
wind damage could be the primary threat. A tendency to go linear may
be the more likely outcome due to unidirectional wind profiles and
the deep-layer shear vectors being somewhat parallel to the
boundary. The exact corridor with the highest severe threat will
likely depend upon the position of the cold front by late Sunday
afternoon.

...Southern Plains/Arklatex...
Westerly to west-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to be in
place across the Southern Plains and Arklatex on Sunday as a cold
front advances southeastward across the region. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s
F with a corridor of moderate to strong instability in place by
afternoon. Model forecasts appear to develop convection along the
front and on the cool side of the front Sunday afternoon and
evening. GFS forecast soundings near the front at 00Z/Monday across
the Texas Hill Country and Arklatex show strong instability (MLCAPE
of 2500 to 4000 J/kg) with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range.
This combined with steep lapse rates in the 500-300 mb layer would
support supercell development with isolated large hail. Wind damage
would also be possible especially with storms that can persist and
develop mature downdrafts.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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Outlook for Monday, May 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260841
SPC AC 260841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions move an upper-level trough across the
mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Monday as a cold front advances
southeastward into the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and
southern Appalachians. The models move the front southward on
Tuesday as the upper-level trough moves eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat will be possible along
parts of the front where instability becomes the strongest both on
Monday and Tuesday during the afternoon and evening.

...Wednesday/Day 6...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions both show strong moisture advection
across the Great Plains and lower to mid Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday. The GFS is more aggressive with moisture return and has a
less amplified upper-level trough in the Great Lakes region. This
solution would be more favorable for a severe threat in the Upper
Midwest. However, the ECMWF solution seems a little bit more
reasonable with an axis of instability from the Ozarks northward
into the mid Missouri Valley. This would suggest a severe threat
will be possible in the lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms could also develop
southward along a dryline in the southern and central Plains.
Predictability is too low to add a severe threat area on Wednesday.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions are different on Thursday and Friday
especially concerning the upper-level pattern. However, both models
show a front from the mid Missouri Valley extending eastward into
the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes on Thursday. This could be the
favored corridor for a severe threat Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, these solutions are quite different suggesting
predictability is very low late in the day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Outlook for Tuesday, May 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260841
SPC AC 260841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions move an upper-level trough across the
mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Monday as a cold front advances
southeastward into the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and
southern Appalachians. The models move the front southward on
Tuesday as the upper-level trough moves eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat will be possible along
parts of the front where instability becomes the strongest both on
Monday and Tuesday during the afternoon and evening.

...Wednesday/Day 6...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions both show strong moisture advection
across the Great Plains and lower to mid Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday. The GFS is more aggressive with moisture return and has a
less amplified upper-level trough in the Great Lakes region. This
solution would be more favorable for a severe threat in the Upper
Midwest. However, the ECMWF solution seems a little bit more
reasonable with an axis of instability from the Ozarks northward
into the mid Missouri Valley. This would suggest a severe threat
will be possible in the lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms could also develop
southward along a dryline in the southern and central Plains.
Predictability is too low to add a severe threat area on Wednesday.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions are different on Thursday and Friday
especially concerning the upper-level pattern. However, both models
show a front from the mid Missouri Valley extending eastward into
the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes on Thursday. This could be the
favored corridor for a severe threat Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, these solutions are quite different suggesting
predictability is very low late in the day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, May 31

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260841
SPC AC 260841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions move an upper-level trough across the
mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Monday as a cold front advances
southeastward into the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and
southern Appalachians. The models move the front southward on
Tuesday as the upper-level trough moves eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat will be possible along
parts of the front where instability becomes the strongest both on
Monday and Tuesday during the afternoon and evening.

...Wednesday/Day 6...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions both show strong moisture advection
across the Great Plains and lower to mid Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday. The GFS is more aggressive with moisture return and has a
less amplified upper-level trough in the Great Lakes region. This
solution would be more favorable for a severe threat in the Upper
Midwest. However, the ECMWF solution seems a little bit more
reasonable with an axis of instability from the Ozarks northward
into the mid Missouri Valley. This would suggest a severe threat
will be possible in the lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms could also develop
southward along a dryline in the southern and central Plains.
Predictability is too low to add a severe threat area on Wednesday.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions are different on Thursday and Friday
especially concerning the upper-level pattern. However, both models
show a front from the mid Missouri Valley extending eastward into
the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes on Thursday. This could be the
favored corridor for a severe threat Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, these solutions are quite different suggesting
predictability is very low late in the day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, June 1

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260841
SPC AC 260841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions move an upper-level trough across the
mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Monday as a cold front advances
southeastward into the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and
southern Appalachians. The models move the front southward on
Tuesday as the upper-level trough moves eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat will be possible along
parts of the front where instability becomes the strongest both on
Monday and Tuesday during the afternoon and evening.

...Wednesday/Day 6...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions both show strong moisture advection
across the Great Plains and lower to mid Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday. The GFS is more aggressive with moisture return and has a
less amplified upper-level trough in the Great Lakes region. This
solution would be more favorable for a severe threat in the Upper
Midwest. However, the ECMWF solution seems a little bit more
reasonable with an axis of instability from the Ozarks northward
into the mid Missouri Valley. This would suggest a severe threat
will be possible in the lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms could also develop
southward along a dryline in the southern and central Plains.
Predictability is too low to add a severe threat area on Wednesday.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions are different on Thursday and Friday
especially concerning the upper-level pattern. However, both models
show a front from the mid Missouri Valley extending eastward into
the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes on Thursday. This could be the
favored corridor for a severe threat Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, these solutions are quite different suggesting
predictability is very low late in the day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, June 2

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260841
SPC AC 260841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions move an upper-level trough across the
mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Monday as a cold front advances
southeastward into the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and
southern Appalachians. The models move the front southward on
Tuesday as the upper-level trough moves eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat will be possible along
parts of the front where instability becomes the strongest both on
Monday and Tuesday during the afternoon and evening.

...Wednesday/Day 6...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions both show strong moisture advection
across the Great Plains and lower to mid Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday. The GFS is more aggressive with moisture return and has a
less amplified upper-level trough in the Great Lakes region. This
solution would be more favorable for a severe threat in the Upper
Midwest. However, the ECMWF solution seems a little bit more
reasonable with an axis of instability from the Ozarks northward
into the mid Missouri Valley. This would suggest a severe threat
will be possible in the lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms could also develop
southward along a dryline in the southern and central Plains.
Predictability is too low to add a severe threat area on Wednesday.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions are different on Thursday and Friday
especially concerning the upper-level pattern. However, both models
show a front from the mid Missouri Valley extending eastward into
the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes on Thursday. This could be the
favored corridor for a severe threat Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, these solutions are quite different suggesting
predictability is very low late in the day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, May 26
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, May 27
ANY SEVERE: 45%
Sunday, May 28
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, May 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, May 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, May 31
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, June 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, June 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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