Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, September 23
Sunday, September 24
Monday, September 25
Tuesday, September 26
Wednesday, September 27
Thursday, September 28
Friday, September 29
Saturday, September 30

Outlook for Saturday, September 23

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and early evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231952

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL MN TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Upper
Midwest to the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and early
evening.

...Northeast NM to southeast CO...
Portions of this region have been removed from the severe
probabilities/Marginal risk area, as the passage of thunderstorms
has stabilized the environment.

...Elsewhere across the rest of the Marginal risk area...
No changes needed.

..Peters.. 09/23/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/

...Synopsis...
A closed midlevel low over NV will drift eastward to UT by tonight,
as embedded speed maxima eject north-northeastward around the
eastern periphery of the larger-scale trough, from AZ/NM to the
northern Plains.  At the surface, a stalled front extends from
central MN to southeastern CO.  The warm sector is characterized by
a broad swath of mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints, and the
remaining narrow corridor of steeper midlevel lapse rates overlaps
the surface warm sector from west TX to MN.  The frontal zone will
serve as the primary focus for thunderstorm development through the
period.

...MN to eastern NM through this evening...
Ongoing clusters of storms may persist into the afternoon,
especially across eastern CO/NM, and additional storm development is
likely this afternoon.  The majority of the convection will be
slightly anafrontal, with the stronger ascent expected atop the
frontal surface (on the immediate cool side of the surface front),
within the deeper moisture plume.  Thus, while deep-layer vertical
shear and midlevel lapse rates will favor some low-end threat for
multicell clusters/marginal supercells capable of producing some
hail and strong wind gusts, the slightly elevated nature of most of
the convection from NE to MN will temper the overall threat.

More surface-based convection is expected from eastern NM into
southeastern CO.  Hodograph length and curvature will become
sufficient for supercells by this evening across the southern High
Plains, though midlevel lapse rates will weaken gradually as the
last of the remaining elevated mixed layer is overturned by deep
convection.  Thus, the threat for large hail will become more
limited with time, while the moist profiles and a transition to more
linear convective modes should likewise stunt any wind/tornado
threat.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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Outlook for Sunday, September 24

Outlook Summary

Severe weather is not expected across the contiguous United States Sunday into Sunday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231717

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the contiguous United States
Sunday into Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough moving slowly eastward through the Great Basin
today, within the western U.S. large-scale trough, and associated
with a closed low will deamplify on Sunday as this entity tracks
northeast through the central Rockies.  This evolution in the mid-
to upper-level flow pattern is expected through Day 2, as persistent
strong ridges continue to flank the western trough in the eastern
Pacific and east of the Great Plains.  A band of meridional flow
will persist from the Southwest states to the Dakotas and MN.  At
the surface, a frontal zone across the central U.S. will shift
slowly east, mainly through a portion of the Upper Midwest and
central Plains.

Given convective overturning into today in vicinity of the frontal
zone from the southern High Plains to the northern Plains, mid-level
lapse rates across this portion of the U.S. are expected to be very
weak on Sunday.  Strongest instability Sunday afternoon should be
confined to parts of western KS to southwest TX, though generally
weak bulk shear will limit storm organization and severe-weather
threat.  Elsewhere, weak instability is expected to preclude the
development of stronger storms, while stronger flow aloft/deep shear
should lag the frontal zone limiting the potential for organized
storms.

..Peters.. 09/23/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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Outlook for Monday, September 25

Outlook Summary

Scattered showers and storms are expected in portions of the southern Great Plains. The severe risk with this activity is expected to be minimal.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230641

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and storms are expected in portions of the
southern Great Plains.  The severe risk with this activity is
expected to be minimal.

...Synopsis...
A longwave trough will continue to remain nearly stationary near the
Four Corners region, while a ridge persists across the Northeast. 
Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across from the base of the
trough across the southern Rockies northeastward to the western
Great Lakes region, although this flow should be comparatively
weaker compared to previous days.  

At the surface, a cold front will continue to migrate slowly
southward across the central Plains and Mississippi Valley, and
should be located from the Texas South Plains northeastward to
western Wisconsin by early evening.  Ahead of this front, 60s F
dewpoints will be common, with somewhat higher boundary layer
moisture (i.e., 70s F dewpoints) across south Texas and the Gulf
Coast.

Continued convergence along the surface front and daytime heating
will foster several areas of convection throughout the day -
especially from southwest Texas into central Kansas.  Mid-level
lapse rates remain a limiting factor for a more widespread severe
threat.  Shear will also be limited due to relatively weak low- and
mid-level flow.  The overall risk for damaging wind gusts appears to
be too sparse to include severe probabilities at this time.

..Cook.. 09/23/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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Outlook for Tuesday, September 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230828
SPC AC 230828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models generally eject the persistent longwave trough out onto the
northern Plains and into Ontario through D6/Thursday, while
lingering troughiness evolves into a closed low over the Desert
Southwest.  Upper ridging will persist along the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico during this period as well.  Meanwhile, a surface ridge
will build into much of the Plains and adjacent Rockies, resulting
in a cooler/drier airmass in much of those areas and deeper boundary
layer moisture being shunted southward toward the Gulf Coast.  After
D6/Thursday, models are consistent in depicting another mid-level
shortwave trough that will migrate southeastward across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley as surface ridging becomes even more dominant
over a large part of the country.  The net result of this pattern is
a decreasing severe risk as buoyant air is displaced well to the
south of areas of enhanced mid-level flow.

..Cook.. 09/23/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, September 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230828
SPC AC 230828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models generally eject the persistent longwave trough out onto the
northern Plains and into Ontario through D6/Thursday, while
lingering troughiness evolves into a closed low over the Desert
Southwest.  Upper ridging will persist along the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico during this period as well.  Meanwhile, a surface ridge
will build into much of the Plains and adjacent Rockies, resulting
in a cooler/drier airmass in much of those areas and deeper boundary
layer moisture being shunted southward toward the Gulf Coast.  After
D6/Thursday, models are consistent in depicting another mid-level
shortwave trough that will migrate southeastward across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley as surface ridging becomes even more dominant
over a large part of the country.  The net result of this pattern is
a decreasing severe risk as buoyant air is displaced well to the
south of areas of enhanced mid-level flow.

..Cook.. 09/23/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, September 28

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230828
SPC AC 230828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models generally eject the persistent longwave trough out onto the
northern Plains and into Ontario through D6/Thursday, while
lingering troughiness evolves into a closed low over the Desert
Southwest.  Upper ridging will persist along the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico during this period as well.  Meanwhile, a surface ridge
will build into much of the Plains and adjacent Rockies, resulting
in a cooler/drier airmass in much of those areas and deeper boundary
layer moisture being shunted southward toward the Gulf Coast.  After
D6/Thursday, models are consistent in depicting another mid-level
shortwave trough that will migrate southeastward across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley as surface ridging becomes even more dominant
over a large part of the country.  The net result of this pattern is
a decreasing severe risk as buoyant air is displaced well to the
south of areas of enhanced mid-level flow.

..Cook.. 09/23/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, September 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230828
SPC AC 230828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models generally eject the persistent longwave trough out onto the
northern Plains and into Ontario through D6/Thursday, while
lingering troughiness evolves into a closed low over the Desert
Southwest.  Upper ridging will persist along the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico during this period as well.  Meanwhile, a surface ridge
will build into much of the Plains and adjacent Rockies, resulting
in a cooler/drier airmass in much of those areas and deeper boundary
layer moisture being shunted southward toward the Gulf Coast.  After
D6/Thursday, models are consistent in depicting another mid-level
shortwave trough that will migrate southeastward across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley as surface ridging becomes even more dominant
over a large part of the country.  The net result of this pattern is
a decreasing severe risk as buoyant air is displaced well to the
south of areas of enhanced mid-level flow.

..Cook.. 09/23/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, September 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230828
SPC AC 230828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models generally eject the persistent longwave trough out onto the
northern Plains and into Ontario through D6/Thursday, while
lingering troughiness evolves into a closed low over the Desert
Southwest.  Upper ridging will persist along the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico during this period as well.  Meanwhile, a surface ridge
will build into much of the Plains and adjacent Rockies, resulting
in a cooler/drier airmass in much of those areas and deeper boundary
layer moisture being shunted southward toward the Gulf Coast.  After
D6/Thursday, models are consistent in depicting another mid-level
shortwave trough that will migrate southeastward across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley as surface ridging becomes even more dominant
over a large part of the country.  The net result of this pattern is
a decreasing severe risk as buoyant air is displaced well to the
south of areas of enhanced mid-level flow.

..Cook.. 09/23/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, September 23
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Sunday, September 24
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, September 25
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, September 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, September 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, September 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, September 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, September 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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