Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, April 20
Saturday, April 21
Sunday, April 22
Monday, April 23
Tuesday, April 24
Wednesday, April 25
Thursday, April 26
Friday, April 27

Outlook for Friday, April 20

Outlook Summary

No severe storms are expected tonight, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over a portion of the Southern Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210053

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe storms are expected tonight, but isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will continue over a portion of the Southern Plains.

...Southern High Plains...

Storms that initiated along the dryline/Pacific front near the NM/TX
border have weakened as they moved farther east into a stable
boundary layer across the TX Panhandle. Isolated storms have also
developed over the higher terrain of southwest TX. However,
stabilization of the boundary layer with loss of diabatic warming
suggests these storms will struggle to organize despite favorable
wind profiles, and should ultimately diminish by 02Z.

..Dial.. 04/21/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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Outlook for Saturday, April 21

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas into western Louisiana Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201727

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX
TO SOUTHWESTERN LA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of Texas into western Louisiana Saturday.

...Central TX into western LA...
A mid- to upper-level low and associated trough will move southeast
from the central and southern High Plains to the Ark-La-Tex region
by daybreak Sunday.  An arctic front over the southern High Plains
will overtake a Pacific cold front during the day across
north-central TX and the consolidated boundary will progress
southeast to western LA and the shelf waters of the Upper TX Coast. 
Widespread clouds and rain are forecast through the early part of
the day to the north of I-20 in north-central and northeast TX. 
There is considerable uncertainty to the degree of destabilization
that may occur in wake of early-day rain.  Some model guidance shows
very little destabilization whereas the 12Z run of the GFS is by far
the most aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer across
north-central TX.  With those instability concerns mentioned, it
appears the north extent of 60-65 dewpoints will advect into
east-central TX by afternoon and only weak instability will develop.
A couple of stronger storms are possible with an isolated hail/wind
risk.  This activity will grow upscale along the front and push into
east and southeast TX after dark.  A lingering threat for a damaging
gust may remain into parts of southeast TX and southwest LA
overnight Saturday night.

..Smith.. 04/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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Outlook for Sunday, April 22

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast states and Florida Panhandle.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200714

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
AL/SOUTHEAST LA EASTWARD THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Southeast states and Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley and
into the Southeast states on Sunday. A weak surface low will move
eastward/southeastward just ahead of this upper low, likely tracking
generally southeastward along a warm front. By 12Z Monday, this
surface low is expected to be centered over southeast AL, with a
cold front extending southward into the Gulf of Mexico and a warm
front extending southeastward into the FL Big Bend.

...Eastern LA into FL Panhandle/Big Bend...
Modest destabilization is anticipated within the warm sector ahead
of the surface low. More robust destabilization will be tempered by
widespread cloudiness but continued moisture advection will likely
result in dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and MLCAPE around 500
J/kg. The position of the warm front has varied within the guidance
over the last few runs and the current expectation is for the front
to extend from near MEI southeastward to near AAF at 21Z Sunday.
Despite modest instability, strong shear supports the potential for
a few organized storms along and south of the warm front during the
afternoon. A more developed convective line is possible over the
north-central Gulf as the cold front moves through the area. This
line could impact the FL Big Bend very late in the period. Marginal
severe probability (i.e. 5%) has been introduced across these areas.
Uncertainty and generally modest severe potential preclude higher
probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 04/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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Outlook for Monday, April 23

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200845
SPC AC 200845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the Southeast states at the beginning of the extended
period (12Z D4/Monday) is expected to slowly drift
northward/northwestward on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday before
eventually becoming absorbed into a shortwave trough progressing
eastward/southeastward from the Plains into the eastern CONUS on
D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. More northerly trajectory of this
shortwave trough coupled with only modest moisture return should
mitigate the severe-weather potential through next week.

..Mosier.. 04/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, April 24

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200845
SPC AC 200845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the Southeast states at the beginning of the extended
period (12Z D4/Monday) is expected to slowly drift
northward/northwestward on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday before
eventually becoming absorbed into a shortwave trough progressing
eastward/southeastward from the Plains into the eastern CONUS on
D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. More northerly trajectory of this
shortwave trough coupled with only modest moisture return should
mitigate the severe-weather potential through next week.

..Mosier.. 04/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, April 25

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200845
SPC AC 200845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the Southeast states at the beginning of the extended
period (12Z D4/Monday) is expected to slowly drift
northward/northwestward on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday before
eventually becoming absorbed into a shortwave trough progressing
eastward/southeastward from the Plains into the eastern CONUS on
D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. More northerly trajectory of this
shortwave trough coupled with only modest moisture return should
mitigate the severe-weather potential through next week.

..Mosier.. 04/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, April 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200845
SPC AC 200845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the Southeast states at the beginning of the extended
period (12Z D4/Monday) is expected to slowly drift
northward/northwestward on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday before
eventually becoming absorbed into a shortwave trough progressing
eastward/southeastward from the Plains into the eastern CONUS on
D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. More northerly trajectory of this
shortwave trough coupled with only modest moisture return should
mitigate the severe-weather potential through next week.

..Mosier.. 04/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, April 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200845
SPC AC 200845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the Southeast states at the beginning of the extended
period (12Z D4/Monday) is expected to slowly drift
northward/northwestward on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday before
eventually becoming absorbed into a shortwave trough progressing
eastward/southeastward from the Plains into the eastern CONUS on
D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. More northerly trajectory of this
shortwave trough coupled with only modest moisture return should
mitigate the severe-weather potential through next week.

..Mosier.. 04/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, April 20
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, April 21
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, April 22
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, April 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, April 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, April 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, April 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, April 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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