Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Central Plains on Wednesday, with a primary threat of large hail and locally damaging wind.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEā€¦NORTHERN KS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Central Plains on Wednesday, with a primary threat of large hail and locally damaging wind.

Synopsis

A midlevel trough is expected to amplify on Wednesday as it moves southeastward from the northern High Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. A surface low is expected to track eastward across the southern Canadian Prairies, while a secondary surface low may form across portions of the southern Plains. Between the two lows, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous across the central Plains, with a surface trough and perhaps one or more outflow boundaries expected to be in place by the afternoon.

Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley

A considerable amount of uncertainty remains regarding the severe thunderstorm potential across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley region on Wednesday, though a conditionally favorable environment will likely develop across portions of this region during the afternoon. For areas that are not disrupted by overnight convection, light low-level southeasterly flow will maintain relatively moist surface conditions, with sufficient heating to support moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) despite seasonably cool conditions. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will favor some organized storm structures, with a few supercells possible capable of large hail and locally damaging wind. One or more clusters may eventually evolve as well, posing a somewhat greater damaging wind risk potentially lasting well into the evening. Confidence in any one particular scenario is low, but the consensus of HREF guidance and larger-scale environment forecasts favor a local maximum in the severe threat across central NE into northern KS, where a Slight Risk has been introduced.

Ozarks Vicinity

One or more thunderstorm clusters may be ongoing Wednesday morning from southeast KS into the Ozarks. To the south and west of any outflow boundaries related to such activity, a very moist and strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) environment is expected to develop during the afternoon, with minimal convective inhibition expected during peak heating. While deep-layer flow will not be particularly strong, weak southeasterly low-level flow veering to modest northwest flow aloft will support effective shear of 25-35 kt, sufficient for some organized storm structures. At least isolated instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight

..Dean/Peters.. 07/17/2018

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 17
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Wednesday, July 18
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 19
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, July 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, July 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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