Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, September 20

Outlook Summary

Severe storms will be possible Thursday from portions of the central Plains northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes region.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181112

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES

CORRECTED THUNDER LINE

SUMMARY

Severe storms will be possible Thursday from portions of the central Plains northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes region.

Synopsis

Stout upper ridging is progged to persist Wednesday over the eastern states, which will result in the advancing trough being shunted to the northeast with time as it exits the Rockies and crosses the north-central states. By the end of the period, the deamplifying trough should be centered over the Upper Great Lakes region, while the dominant ridge remains centered over the Southeast.

At the surface, a low initially progged to be crossing the Mid-Missouri Valley/upper Midwest should deepen as it shifts across the Upper Great Lakes toward southern Ontario/western Quebec. A trailing/advancing cold front will focus a zone of thunderstorms – and some severe risk – from the central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes region.

The Mid-Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys, and Upper Great Lakes

Diurnal heating of the pre-frontal boundary layer is expected, as the low – and warm front – shift northward into/across the Upper Great Lakes. Resulting destabilization, combined with large-scale ascent focused near the surface cold front will support afternoon storm development – from Kansas northeast to the Upper Great Lakes.

With strong southwesterly flow aloft spreading atop the frontal zone – particularly from roughly Iowa northward, a few stronger storms appear likely to evolve through the afternoon, possibly growing upscale with time into a line/band of locally severe convection. Large hail and locally damaging winds appear to be the primary risk with stronger updrafts, with risk likely diminishing gradually after dark into the Midwest and toward the lower Great Lakes.

..Goss.. 09/18/2018

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 18
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: low
Wednesday, September 19
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, September 20
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, September 21
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, September 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, September 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, September 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, September 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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