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Outlook for Wednesday, November 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141233

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

Discussion

A quick moving midlevel trough in the northern branch of a split jet will continue to move east into the Atlantic Ocean. In the trough's wake, a surface front is draped across the northern portion of the Florida Peninsula. Farther west, a closed low within the southern branch of the jetstream will deepen across Arkansas as it moves from near Texarkana to near the Missouri Bootheel. As this midlevel low deepens, a weak surface low should develop across the northeast Gulf of Mexico this afternoon along the residual front. Although a truly closed surface circulation may not develop, increasingly westerly component of the low-level wind field on the cold side of the front will allow it to begin moving east toward the Florida Peninsula. This should increase low-level convergence along the front enough to support a few thunderstorms across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and eventually (potentially) across the northern Florida Peninsula. If confidence in land-based thunderstorms across the northern Peninsula increases, a small window for strong thunderstorms may exist as modest instability and long, straight hodographs would support a marginal severe wind threat. However, given the anticipated time of day (late evening) and the bulk of the deep-layer flow parallel to the front, confidence in this scenario remains too low for probabilities.

Overnight, more robust surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur along the residual front over the coastal waters of southeast Georgia. In response to this cyclogenesis, the surface front should begin to lift northwest, approaching coastal areas of the Carolinas by Wednesday morning. Strengthening wind fields will result in a strongly sheared warm sector to the southeast of the front, posing a risk for supercell thunderstorms. However, at this time, it appears the warm sector should remain offshore until after at least 12UTC/7AM EST on Thursday.

..Marsh.. 11/14/2018

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, November 14
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Thursday, November 15
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, November 16
ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, November 17
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, November 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, November 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, November 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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