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Outlook for Friday, January 18

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail may occur from parts of east Texas and Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex late this afternoon into tonight. Strong to locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado may occur overnight into early Saturday morning from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180555

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX/OK INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail may occur from parts of east Texas and Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex late this afternoon into tonight. Strong to locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado may occur overnight into early Saturday morning from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Synopsis

An amplifying upper trough will eject eastward from the Rockies across the central and southern Plains today. A 50-80+ kt mid-level southwesterly jet will overspread parts of the southern Plains to the lower MS Valley beginning this afternoon and continuing through tonight. A surface low initially over the central High Plains is forecast to develop southeastward to the OK/TX border vicinity by this evening, and then continue developing eastward across the lower MS Valley through the remainder of the period.

East TX/ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley

Low-level moisture transport will occur ahead of the upper trough and surface low through the day across parts of central/east TX. With a prior frontal passage having shunted richer moisture southward over the Gulf of Mexico, recovery of the low-level airmass across this region will likely be delayed until at least late this afternoon when sufficient low-level moisture can be transported far enough northward to support convective initiation. Forecast soundings across east TX and the ArkLaTex region suggest this initial activity will likely be slightly elevated, with MUCAPE of generally 500-1250 J/kg. Long, straight hodographs, effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt supporting mid-level storm rotation, and steepening mid-level lapse rates with the approach of the upper trough all suggest that isolated large hail should be the primary threat with these elevated thunderstorms. The hail threat across eastern OK and western/central AR should be constrained by decreasing moisture/instability with northward extent, even through strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures ahead of the upper trough will be present.

Greater thunderstorm coverage should eventually occur from late this evening into tonight across east TX and LA along an eastward-moving cold front that will extend southward from the surface low. Even though surface dewpoints will likely remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, strong low-level warm and moist air advection will occur ahead of the front across the lower MS Valley overnight owing to a 40-55 kt southwesterly low-level jet. While low-level lapse rates will be weak, forecast soundings from most short-term guidance show some potential for surface-based thunderstorms across this region, mainly in the 06-12Z time frame. Given the strength of the low-level flow, strong to locally damaging winds could occur with a consolidating line of thunderstorms, and plentiful low-level shear may support an embedded tornado or two as well. The lack of greater low-level moisture across the warm sector limits confidence in any more than Marginal risk probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Dean.. 01/18/2019

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, January 18
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Saturday, January 19
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, January 20
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, January 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, January 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, January 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, January 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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