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Outlook for Monday, February 18

Outlook Summary

The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

Outlook Images

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160811

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

Discussion

Although embedded short wave developments remain somewhat unclear, models indicate that larger-scale western U.S. mid-level troughing may undergo some amplification during this period. It appears that this will occur as another in a series of short wave perturbations digs inland of the Pacific coast: this one to the south/southwest of the preceding impulses, across the Southwestern international border area.

Downstream, while mid-level subtropical ridging centered near/east of the Bahamas remains prominent, short wave ridging within the mid-latitude westerlies is forecast to build, in phase with the subtropical stream, across lower portions of the southern Plains into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. As a vigorous short wave impulse digs within a branch of westerlies to the north, to the southwest of Hudson Bay, it appears that increasingly confluent mid-level flow will support the southeastward development of the center of an expansive cold surface ridge, across the northern Plains through southern portions of the Great Lakes region.

The shallow southern/leading edge of the cold surface-based air appears likely to advance off the south Atlantic coast, while remaining quasi-stationary, beneath the mid-level ridging, across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through much of the remainder of the northern Gulf coast vicinity. Above it, a southerly return flow will be maintained, including further moistening off a modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, into the western and central Gulf Coast states.

In the presence of weak (but increasing) elevated instability, modest strengthening of the return flow (including 30-40 kt at 850 mb) may be accompanied by steepening isentropic ascent supportive of increasing potential for scattered thunderstorm development by late Monday night. Depending on the magnitude of CAPE and depth of the convective layer, the environment could become conducive to severe hail in the presence of strong vertical shear, mainly in a narrow corridor roughly across central Louisiana and adjacent portions of Texas and Mississippi. However, due to a number of lingering uncertainties, including timing near the end of the period, severe probabilities still appear less than 5 percent at the present time.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2019

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, February 16
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, February 17
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, February 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, February 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, February 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, February 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, February 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, February 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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