Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, March 22

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts should be the primary threats.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220535

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts should be the primary threats.

Synopsis

Across the East, a strong coastal low will deepen off of the New England coast today as a deep upper trough amplifies and moves slowly eastward. Further west, a negatively tilted trough will move into the central/southern High Plains as a shortwave ridge shifts slowly eastward ahead of this feature, in the wake of the eastern trough. A weak surface low is expected to develop across eastern CO in response to the ejecting shortwave trough.

Southern High Plains into Southeast CO

A surface ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico continues to impede low-level moisture return, with dewpoints generally in the 40s-50s F and PW values less than 1 inch across TX into most of the Gulf of Mexico, per Thursday evening surface observations and 00Z soundings. While this ridge will likely shift eastward during the day, there will be little opportunity for substantive moisture return, though a narrow tongue of modest low-level moisture will be advected from the Rio Grande Valley into portions of the southern High Plains. Despite the poor moisture quality, steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft (-16C to -20C at 500 mb) will allow for some destabilization to occur this afternoon, especially in areas where some clearing is realized after early morning clouds and precipitation. MLCAPE will likely range from around 250 J/kg across southeastern CO to as much as 1000 J/kg across portions of west TX by late afternoon.

Deep-layer shear will be more than sufficient to support organized convection as the negatively tilted shortwave ejects into the High Plains. From the TX Panhandle northward, stronger large-scale ascent and somewhat more meridional mid/upper-level flow will favor a quicker transition to mixed or linear modes. Initial activity in this region will have potential for marginally severe hail, while some severe gust threat will evolve as upscale growth occurs.

From the TX South Plains southward, shear vectors more orthogonal to the dryline will conditionally favor supercells, though thunderstorm coverage across this area is more uncertain with the strongest large-scale ascent passing to the north. Any supercell that develops within this regime will have the potential to produce large hail and locally severe wind gusts. Some increase in low-level shear is expected near and after 00Z, and a brief increase in the tornado threat is possible with any remaining discrete cells this evening before MLCINH increases later tonight. If confidence increases in the development of multiple supercells across this region, then an increase in severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

..Dean/Nauslar.. 03/22/2019

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, March 22
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Saturday, March 23
ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, March 24
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, March 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, March 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, March 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, March 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, March 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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