Severe thunderstorms with considerable potential for producing damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are likely across much of the southern through mid Atlantic Coast region, particularly across the Carolinas into southern/central Virginia this afternoon and evening.

Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, April 21

Outlook Summary

Marginally severe thunderstorms with a potential for hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central Plains on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190703

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Marginally severe thunderstorms with a potential for hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central Plains on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Central Plains

An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday. West southwest mid-level flow should be in place across the south-central states. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the central Plains. The models generally have surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60 F ahead of the front which would result in an axis of instability by afternoon. Although a cap is present across the instability axis, isolated thunderstorms could initiate along the front where low-level convergence will be maximized. Forecast soundings along and just ahead of the front late Sunday afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates suggesting a severe threat will be possible. Due to the cap, convection should struggle helping to keep the overall threat marginal during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles.. 04/19/2019

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, April 19
TORNADO: 10%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 45%
Saturday, April 20
ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, April 21
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, April 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, April 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, April 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, April 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, April 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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