An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent, is expected today into this evening over portions of northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. More-isolated but still potentially dangerous severe weather, including tornadoes, is possible in surrounding parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas.

Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 21

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible from the middle Mississippi Valley south into the Arklatex on Tuesday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200539

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MO…NORTHERN AR…AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible from the middle Mississippi Valley south into the Arklatex on Tuesday.

Synopsis

Mid-latitude cyclone over the central High Plains Tuesday morning is expected to move northeastward throughout the day, reaching the northern Plains by early Wednesday. Strong southerly/southeasterly flow aloft throughout the eastern periphery of the cyclone will spread from the southern/central Plains northeastward into the upper/mid MS Valley. Surface low associated with this mid-latitude cyclone will move northward across the central Plains while occluding. This occlusion process will result in eventual displacement between the warm sector (over the mid MS Valley) and the surface low (over the central Plains) after 21Z.

Lower MO/Mid MS Valleys into the Arklatex

Expansive convective line will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from KS through north TX. This line is expected to continue progressing eastward/northeastward throughout the day, moving through AR, MO, and southern/central IL. Kinematic fields associated with the mid-latitude cyclone mentioned in the synopsis are impressive, with 80 kt of southerly 500 mb flow atop southerly 850 mb flow of 40-50 kt expected across MO by 21Z. The result is very long hodographs and strong deep layer (i.e. 0-6 km) shear around 60-70 kt. A warm front will gradually shift northeastward across MO Tuesday morning, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s anticipated ahead of the line as it moves into MO and AR during the early afternoon. Also, the a shortwave trough rotating through the parent cyclone is expected to catch up to the preceding convective line.

All of these factors suggest a reintensification of the line is likely, with some increased forward propagation anticipated. Consequently, higher coverage of damaging wind gusts is possible and a 30% probability area has been added from northern MO/far west-central IL southward into northern AR. Mesovortices/QLCS tornadoes are also possible, particularly in areas where the convective line surges forward.

Central/Eastern NE…Northeastern KS

A late-afternoon severe threat may develop across the region as the cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper low move over a well-mixed boundary layer. Instability is modest but favorable shear, particularly in areas near the warm front where the surface winds remain southeasterly, could support a few storms capable of hail and maybe even a brief tornado.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight

..Mosier.. 05/20/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Monday, May 20
TORNADO: 30%
HAIL: 45%
WIND: 45%
Tuesday, May 21
ANY SEVERE: 30%
Wednesday, May 22
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, May 23
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, May 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, May 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, May 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, May 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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