An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent, is expected today into this evening over portions of northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. More-isolated but still potentially dangerous severe weather, including tornadoes, is possible in surrounding parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas.

Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 22

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of hail are possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning from the southern High Plains into the central Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200724

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms capable of hail are possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning from the southern High Plains into the central Plains.

Synopsis

Complex upper pattern evolution is expected on Wednesday as two strong shortwave troughs, one over the northern Plains at 12Z and the other over southern NV/CA, pivot cyclonically around the deep upper troughing in place from the Canadian Prairie provinces through southern CA. At the same time, southeastern CONUS ridging will build northward/northwestward into the Plains and OH Valley. By the end of the period, an amplified western CONUS trough/eastern CONUS ridge pattern is expected, with strong mid-level flow between these two features from the southern High Plains to the upper MS Valley.

At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be a deepening lee low across the southern High Plains, which helps to increase the pressure gradient. Resulting southeasterly winds will augment the return flow across the southern and central Plains. Current expectation is for mid 60s dewpoints to extend as far west as the TX Panhandle and as far north as northern KS by 12Z Thursday.

Southern/Central Plains

Rising heights associated with the building southeast CONUS ridging will likely limit thunderstorm chances throughout much of the day. However, development of a strong low-level jet is expected during the evening and overnight. Resulting warm-air advection into the sharpening lee trough/dryline across west TX and into the warm front across KS will provide the lift need for convective initiation. Steep lapse rates and strong vertical shear support elevated supercells and an attendant hail risk. Uncertainty regarding coverage precludes higher than 5% probability with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 05/20/2019

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Monday, May 20
TORNADO: 30%
HAIL: 45%
WIND: 45%
Tuesday, May 21
ANY SEVERE: 30%
Wednesday, May 22
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, May 23
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, May 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, May 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, May 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, May 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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