Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 16

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening, with the primary threats being large hail and severe wind gusts. Other strong storms will be possible into portions of the Midwest, and also from the lower and mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161236

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MT/WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening, with the primary threats being large hail and severe wind gusts. Other strong storms will be possible into portions of the Midwest, and also from the lower and mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.

MT/WY into the Dakotas

Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough moving across parts of northern NV and southern ID. This feature will track into western MT later today, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern MT. Northeasterly upslope low-level flow into this region coupled with substantial heating and steep lapse rates aloft will promote vigorous updrafts by mid/late afternoon. Forecast soundings also show considerable deep-layer shear for supercell structures. These storms should track eastward across southeast MT and northeast WY during the early evening and into the western Dakotas after dark. Very large hail will be possible in the discrete supercells, but recent model runs are more bullish on a scenario where storms congeal into a fast-moving bowing complex posing a risk of more widespread damaging winds. Therefore have add an ENH risk area to the outlook.

IA

A large complex of storms is ongoing this morning over western IA. Model guidance and local VAD profiles suggest an area of enhanced flow aloft associated with an embedded MCV. Given the high theta-e air mass ahead of this system, some consideration was given to adding a SLGT risk for parts of IA for this afternoon. However, due to uncertainties regarding the early timing of the system, recent weakening trends, and the potential for clouds limiting destabilization, chose to maintain the ongoing MRGL risk.

MS/OH Valleys

A band of enhanced low/mid level winds associated with the remnants of Barry extends from LA/MS into IN/OH. Early visible satellite imagery suggests that pockets of heating will contribute to localized moderate CAPE values later today. Small bowing structures or transient supercells may develop with a risk of gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Smith.. 07/16/2019

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 16
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Wednesday, July 17
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 18
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, July 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, July 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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