Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 17

Outlook Summary

Strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong storms may also be noted across parts of the Plains and over portions of the northeastern US.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160513

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong storms may also be noted across parts of the Plains and over portions of the northeastern US.

Upper MS Valley

Seasonally strong mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the northern inter-mountain region during the day1 period which should aid organized convection across the northern High Plains Tuesday night. Latest guidance suggests an MCS may evolve ahead of this feature late day1 that should propagate across central SD by sunrise Wednesday. While late-evening guidance differs a bit regarding the timing of the affiliated short wave, there is reason to believe the Plains MCS may continue east into southern MN as LLJ shifts downstream ahead of the disturbance. It's not entirely clear how much convection, if any, will root into the boundary layer where more buoyant parcels will exist. However a strong signal does exist for organized elevated convection propagating east across southern MN along the nose of aforementioned LLJ. Wind and some hail are the primary threats.

Plains

Farther southwest along surface boundary, strong low-level heating will contribute to parcels reaching their convective temperatures and isolated high-based convection should evolve across eastern NE into western KS. This activity could produce isolated severe wind gusts as sub-cloud temp/dew point spreads may approach 40F at peak heating.

Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may also develop across eastern WY within post-frontal easterly flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest a few supercells may form after 22z and this activity should spread toward the Black Hills after sunset.

Isolated strong storms may also develop across eastern ND into northwest MN if sufficient instability develops in the wake of early-MCS that tracks across SD into southern MN. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be stronger across this region as exit region of 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across southeast ND into northwest MN during the early evening hours.

Delmarva to southern New England

Remnants of Barry are forecast to eject across the OH Valley into western NY/PA by 18z. Somewhat stronger mid-level flow will evolve ahead of this feature along a corridor into southern New England where boundary-layer heating is expected to be maximized. Forecast soundings exhibit mean cloud-layer flow on the order of 25kt. With surface temperatures expected to rise into the 90s, steepening surface-3km lapse rates should enhance downdraft potential with convection across this region.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Darrow.. 07/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 16
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Wednesday, July 17
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 18
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, July 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, July 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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