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Outlook for Wednesday, October 16

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150443

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

Synopsis

The mid/upper level low over the Great Lakes and attendant trough extending southward to the northern Gulf Coast will lift east/northeast Wednesday, with the upper low centered over southern New England/NY the trough offshore the Mid-Atlantic by 12z Thursday. As this occurs, an upper ridge will amplify as it tracks across the Rockies and into the Plains ahead of another upper trough deepening along the Pacific coast by the end of the period. A surface low near coastal SC and a rain-cooled airmass across the Gulf coast states will result in the effective cold front extending from the SC coastal low westward to southern LA to near the upper/middle TX coast and westward across south TX. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front Wednesday morning, but generally poor thermodynamics coupled weak forcing will preclude severe concerns before the front moves offshore the Gulf coast by midday. The front will sag southward across the northern/central FL peninsula, but flow parallel to the boundary at all levels will not support sustained updrafts in the absence of stronger low level convergence and little upper support.

The coastal SC low will rapidly intensify into an Nor'easter and approach the New England coast by Thursday morning. As this occurs, the northern extent of the cold front located over the upper OH River valley will push eastward across much of the Northeast and offshore the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorm activity will be confined from the central Appalachians vicinity northeastward along the I-95 corridor. Weak instability/poor lapse rates and marginal effective shear will limit severe potential. Some strong gusts are possible near the coast given the strong background flow as the coastal low rapidly intensifies. However, these strong winds are not expected to be related to convection, precluding the need for severe probs.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None

..Leitman.. 10/15/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 15
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Wednesday, October 16
ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, October 17
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, October 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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