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Outlook for Friday, December 6

Outlook Summary

No severe thunderstorms are expected this period.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061945

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2019

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

No severe thunderstorms are expected this period.

20Z Outlook Update

### Gulf Coast

Thunderstorm coverage has shrunk considerably that past couple of hours, as the supporting mid-level short wave impulse gradually accelerates eastward toward the south Atlantic Coast region. As mid-level subsidence and warming overspreads the north central Gulf coast, and low-level moisture return becomes increasing cut-off from the favorable mid-level cooling/ascent, thunderstorm probabilities probably will become increasingly negligible through 22-00Z.

Elsewhere

There are no changes.

As the upper impulse approaches the south Atlantic coast, destabilization may become supportive increasing thunderstorm activity near the coastal waters. But this is still expected to remain offshore.

Thunderstorm probabilities appear likely to remain negligible near and inland of the northern California/southern Oregon coast until after 07/06Z. Thereafter, any increase in thunderstorm probabilities may largely be confined to immediate coastal areas and the Shasta/Siskiyou region into the western slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2019/

Gulf Coast Region

A strong and progressive shortwave trough over AR/LA will track across the Gulf Coast states today, with an associated cluster of showers and thunderstorms affecting parts of MS/AL/GA/FL. The low-level air mass ahead of the convection is not particularly unstable and low-level wind fields are weak. Therefore, storms are expected to have limited intensity and pose little risk of severe wind or hail.

Pacific Northwest

A large upper trough is approaching the CA/OR coast, with the initial band of precipitation moving ashore this morning. Cooling temperatures aloft and persistent onshore flow will eventually pose a risk of deep convection and a few lightning strikes later this afternoon and tonight. Some small hail cannot be ruled out in the stronger cores, but no severe weather is forecast.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, December 6
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, December 7
ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, December 8
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, December 9
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, December 10
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, December 11
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, December 12
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, December 13
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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