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Outlook for Saturday, December 7

Outlook Summary

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061646

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2019

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night.

Discussion

Within one branch of split westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclone will gradually progress inland during this period. As these features encounter increasing confluence, it appears they may undergo deformation and considerable further weakening.

The remnants of the mid-level cyclonic circulation are forecast to gradually spread inland of the northern California and adjacent southern Oregon coast during the day Saturday, and perhaps into/across the northern Sierra Nevada Saturday night. This is expected to be preceded by an influx of moisture and strengthening south/southwesterly low-level flow, which may be contributing to convection capable of producing occasional lightning across the western slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada at 12Z Saturday. Thereafter, steepening lapse rates associated with forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling accompanying the remnant circulation may contribute to weak boundary layer destabilization across the coastal ranges into the northern Sierra Nevada, accompanied by somewhat better potential for widely scattered thunderstorm development. Although vertical shear could become favorable for an isolated supercell or two across parts of the Sacramento Valley late Saturday afternoon and evening, with CAPE generally forecast on the order of 250 J/kg or less, probabilities for severe storms still seem less than 5 percent at this time.

Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the remainder of the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorms.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None

..Kerr.. 12/06/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, December 6
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, December 7
ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, December 8
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, December 9
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, December 10
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, December 11
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, December 12
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, December 13
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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