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Outlook for Sunday, October 17

Outlook Summary

Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the U.S. on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161702

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the U.S. on Sunday.

Synopsis

A stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS on Sunday with a large area of high pressure over the Rockies and Plains spreading eastward to the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. As a large upper trough swings east across the northeastern states, a cold front will quickly exit eastern ME Sunday morning, with southern parts of the front moving across south FL during the day. While moist, a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist over FL, resulting in mainly shallow convection with little lightning. However, isolated convection deep enough for lightning cannot be ruled out over far southern FL/Keys during the late afternoon.

Elsewhere, an amplified shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest near 00Z, with strong cooling aloft. Very weak instability is forecast, with any convection most likely over the ocean.

..Jewell.. 10/16/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 16
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: low
WIND: 15%
Sunday, October 17
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Monday, October 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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