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Outlook for Monday, October 18

Outlook Summary

Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160718

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Monday.

Discussion

An upper low centered over Quebec will drift slowly southeastward with time, wile surrounding cyclonic flow lingers across the eastern states. In the West, an upper low is progged to deepen as it shifts eastward across the Intermountain region, reaching the Wyoming vicinity overnight.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail over much of the East, while a cold front moves across the Intermountain West in conjunction with the mobile upper low. Overnight, the front will begin to emerge into the northern and central Plains region – stretching from the Dakotas to the southern Rockies/southern High Plains by Tuesday morning.

As this upper low and associated surface system shift steadily eastward, cooling/steepening lapse rates aloft will provide modest destabilization, supporting development of low-topped convection, including potential for sporadic lightning. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.

..Goss.. 10/16/2021

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 16
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: low
WIND: 15%
Sunday, October 17
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Monday, October 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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