Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 9

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050843 SPC AC 050843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to gradually shift eastward across southern Quebec on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base. At the same time, expansive upper ridging will build eastward. By early D6/Thursday, this ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest northward across the Plains and Upper MS Valley into Ontario. Further eastward progression/expansion of this ridging is anticipated on D7/Friday, although some dampening is possible along its northern periphery over the Canadian Prairies. This pattern evolution will maintain a stable airmass across the majority of the CONUS.

The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will remain in place throughout the period. Additionally, medium-range guidance continues to suggest tropical cyclone development could occur over the Gulf of Mexico, with potential impacts across the FL Peninsula on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday.

..Mosier.. 10/05/2024

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, October 6: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 12: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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