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Outlook for Saturday, November 2

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021246

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.

Synopsis

In mid/upper levels, a full-latitude trough is located from BC down the West Coast States to Baja. A series of accompanying shortwaves and speed maxima – predominantly remaining behind the height axis – will contribute to the trough's eastward shift across the western parts of the CONUS and Canada through the period. By 12Z tomorrow, the trough should extend from the Mackenzie River Valley of northwestern Canada, across the length of AB, to western MT, the central/eastern Great Basin, western/central AZ, Sonora, and southern Baja. An extensive fetch of southwest flow aloft and height falls will precede the trough over the U.S Rocky Mountains and Great Plains.

In the slower southern part of that southwest flow, a basal shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of AZ and the eastern Sonora/western Chihuahua area. This feature is augmenting the more diffuse, large-scale support from the synoptic trough for the warm/moist advection regime and related, extensive band of thunderstorms and precip observed from southern NM to southern KS. This perturbation should reach eastern NM and far west TX by 00Z, then perhaps with convective vorticity enhancement, eject northeastward into portions of KS and western OK overnight.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front over the Atlantic well offshore from the Mid-Atlantic region, becoming quasistationary across northern FL, the north-central Gulf Coast vicinity and southeast TX, then a warm front over central/northwest TX. The western segment of this boundary should move slowly and diffusely northeastward today into OK as a warm front.

Southern High Plains to portions of OK

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in a southwest/northeast- oriented band should shift eastward over the outlook areas today into this evening, offering mainly isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail, with a low-end threat for embedded/QLCS mesovortex tornadoes. Hail and tornado potential will be greatest farther southwest today over parts of west TX and extreme southeastern NM.

Available/modified RAOB data and objective SPC mesoanalyses indicate effective inflow parcels already are surface-based south and west of the effective warm front, across western OK, northwest TX, and the South Plains to the Permian Basin. This should remain the case throughout today, as muted diabatic heating and theta-e advection slowly destabilize the warm sector south of the convective boundary. This will combine with mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, offsetting modest midlevel lapse rates enough to support peak/preconvective MLCAPE ranging from around 2000 J/kg over southeastern NM and the South Plains/Permian Basin regions, to around 500 J/kg near the diffuse warm front in central OK. The approaching synoptic and shortwave troughs will tighten height gradients enough to boost deep shear, contributing to around 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Meanwhile, low-level hodographs should exhibit enough size/curvature and lowest-km RH to suggest at least marginal tornado potential.

While the parameter space (as sampled by various model soundings) will be favorable for the full range of severe hazards in and near the "slight risk" corridor today, a somewhat anafrontal character to the convective band is expected, given that it will be nearly parallel to the flow aloft and slowly progressive due to quasi- linear outflow effects. Sustained and/or discrete supercell potential appears greatest near the southern end of the regime over the Permian Basin region, where instability should be greatest today amid favorable shear, thereby relatively maximizing overall probabilities for tornadoes and large to significant-severe (2+ inch) hail.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/02/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, November 2
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Sunday, November 3
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Monday, November 4
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, November 5
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 6
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, November 7
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, November 8
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, November 9
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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