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Outlook for Tuesday, December 3

Outlook Summary

Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Outlook Images

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tornado low

wind low

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030531

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

South Texas

Weak mid-level height rises are forecast across deep south Texas much of the period. With weak short-wave ridging expected to dominate, it appears the LLJ will be one mechanism for weak convection through the period. In addition, a coastal boundary will also focus weak surface-based convection, where surface dew points are able to hold in the mid 60s. Even so, low-level shear is forecast to remain seasonally weak, despite the presence of low-level warm advection. Latest model guidance suggests elevated convection may evolve along the cool side of the boundary as parcels lifted near 850mb do yield some MUCAPE, possibly enough for lightning discharge within the strongest updrafts. Of more concern will be the surface-based buoyancy that evolves near the coastal boundary, as mid 60s surface dew points advance inland along the south TX coast. Forecast soundings exhibit around 500 J/kg SBCAPE within this environment, but shear will remain weak. Latest thinking is any convection that evolves should remain unorganized and updrafts are expected to be weak.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/03/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, December 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, December 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, December 5: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, December 6: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, December 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, December 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, December 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, December 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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