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Outlook for Saturday, May 17

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171248

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast.

Southern Plains Region

Water vapor imagery depicts a pronounced southern stream upper-level trough over the Baja Peninsula this morning, with evidence of a lead impulse approaching southwest TX. This leading impulse will contribute to ascent in the vicinity of a sharpening dryline across Western North Texas/Oklahoma by early afternoon. To the east of the dryline, extreme instability (MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg) is expected to develop given the moist low-level air mass and relatively cool mid-level thermal profiles. With negligible CINH by early/mid afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline and move east/northeast into North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Supercells will be the dominant mode initially, with a risk for very large hail (in excess of 3.5 inches), and damaging gusts. Although low-level shear is not especially strong, some tornado risk will exist given the magnitude of instability and potential for storm-scale interactions. Eventual upscale growth into a severe MCS is expected as storms continue to move across North TX/southern OK this evening. Severe wind probabilities have been increased across the Enhanced Risk area for the expectation of a more concentrated corridor of damaging wind potential.

Across central/northwest OK, a narrowing plume of instability will be present east of the dryline and south of an east-west oriented frontal boundary. Within this moist sector, strong to extreme instability and around 50 kts of deep-layer shear will support at least isolated supercell storm development this afternoon over central OK. Very large hail (3 inches or greater) will be possible, in addition to damaging gusts. Tornado risk will be dependent on storm interactions. Thunderstorm development over northwest OK is more uncertain, however should a storm develop a supercell mode will be favored with all hazards possible.

Northeast

Strong mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. Large-scale ascent will increase with as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely, with severe hail and winds as the primary risks. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any stronger and semi-discrete supercell. Please refer to Mesoscale Discussion 836 for additional details on short-term expectations.

Northern Utah Vicinity

A Marginal Risk has been introduced across northern UT and vicinity given expected higher concentration of storms within a deeply-mixed boundary layer. Strong/severe gusts will be the primary severe risk.

Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast

Thunderstorms continue from central MS into the western Carolinas at 13z, with occasional pulses of strong/severe cells. Isolated stronger storms will remain possible as diurnal heating/destabilization takes place in the presence of ample shear for organized storms. However, with the line of convection oriented generally parallel to the shear vector, any severe risk should be isolated. Strong gusts will be the primary hazard.

..Bunting/Marsh.. 05/17/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 17: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, May 18: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Monday, May 19: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Tuesday, May 20: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Wednesday, May 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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