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Outlook for Thursday, June 12

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, will spread across portions of the central and northern Plains this evening. Hail and wind are the primary risks.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130033

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, will spread across portions of the central and northern Plains this evening. Hail and wind are the primary risks.

01z Update

Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern High Plains of eastern MT/northeast WY early this evening. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed along the southern influence of this feature, particularly from southeast WY into north central NE, along a synoptic boundary draped across this region. While LLJ is not forecast to be particularly strong overnight, some increase is possible into this boundary over the next few hours and this could encourage additional storms as well as support ongoing activity. Latest radar data suggests large hail is occurring with the strongest updrafts, perhaps as many as half a dozen storms along the frontal zone. As heights are suppressed across the northern Plains tonight, low-level warm advection will likely support at least one or more MCS-type clusters to evolve and propagate toward the upper MS Valley by daybreak.

..Darrow.. 06/13/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 13: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 14: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, June 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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