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Outlook for Friday, June 13

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible.

Synopsis

A weak shortwave trough will move through the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley region on Friday. This feature will likely lose amplitude with time. Farther west, a stronger shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies by late afternoon/evening while surface ridging will build into the Southwest and southern High Plains.

Montana into the central High Plains

Strong surface heating and a lee trough promoting moisture influx into these regions will lead to an elongated region of greater confidence in severe storm coverage from Montana into the northern Texas Panhandle. With the trough approaching the northern Rockies, the highest storm coverage will likely be in Montana into parts of Wyoming. Effective shear in these areas (particularly near the Big Horns) will range from 45-55 kts. Large hail, including some potential for stones around 2 inches in diameter, and severe wind gusts are probable. Farther to the south, storm coverage will gradually become more limited, especially away from terrain initiation sources. Even so, clusters of initial supercells or small linear segments will pose some risk for large hail and severe wind gusts as well.

Mid-Atlantic

Along the southern fringe of stronger mid-level flow, a few storms are possible along a weak surface boundary near the Maryland/Pennsylvania border. Some model guidance shows a weak shortwave perturbation moving into the region, but timing and strength of the feature are variable. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak and buoyancy will largely depend on surface heating. Given the uncertainty in cloud cover, it appears any severe will be conditional. A few stronger storms are possible and trends in guidance will be monitored with regard to areas of sufficient surface heating.

Southeast/Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley

Scattered thunderstorms are likely near and ahead of the weak upper-level shortwave trough that will be slowly lifting northeast through the Ozarks. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely during the morning/afternoon. This increases the uncertainty as to where the greatest amount of destabilization will occur. Some modest flow enhancement appears probable for the Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley vicinity, though mid-level winds will weaken through the day. Greater buoyancy is expected in Mississippi, but deep-layer shear will be much weaker. There is certainly potential for isolated wind damage from the stronger storms tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in highlighting an area of greater coverage of organized severe storms is low at this point.

..Wendt.. 06/12/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 13: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 14: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, June 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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