Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Friday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120055

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains.

Midwest

Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight.

Southern High Plains

Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN.

Central High Plains

Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat.

..Grams.. 07/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.