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Outlook for Saturday, July 12

Outlook Summary

Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, and eastern Michigan on Saturday. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible over much of southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico during the afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, and eastern Michigan on Saturday. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible over much of southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico during the afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the upper MS Valley, while a separate weaker system drifts east across the central to southern Plains. Meanwhile, weak ridging will remain over the Southeast, with a stronger upper high over southern CA.

At the surface, low pressure will move across Lower MI, with drying across the upper MS Valley as winds veer. A diffuse boundary will extend southwestward into parts of MO, KS, and OK, providing a focus for storms.

Great Lakes Region

Strong heating will occur ahead of a cold front, with upper 60s F dewpoints over IN, OH, and much of Lower MI. Little cooling aloft is forecast with the glancing upper wave, but MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. Convergence within the surface trough will lead to scattered storms along the wind shift, with a few severe gusts and marginal hail possible. Low-level shear will be strongest over northern Lower MI, and an isolated supercell cannot be ruled out. Some uncertainty exist regarding overall storm coverage, as midlevel subsidence moves in late in the day.

OH/Mid MS Valleys to the southern Plains

Ongoing storms with outflow may exist from parts of the South Plains into OK Saturday morning. Any associated boundaries may provide a focus for redevelopment during the afternoon, as 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE develops. Aside from that, moist easterly low-level flow through a deep layer will be favorable for thunderstorms across almost all of Southwest TX, including the Big Bend area. While shear will be weak, lightly veering winds with height along with steep lapse rates and strong instability should lead to a few robust, slow-moving storms with localized damaging hail and downburst potential.

..Jewell.. 07/11/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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