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Outlook for Sunday, November 9

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday afternoon into the evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from central Florida to southeast Virginia. Damaging winds and hail are the expected hazards.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080632

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday afternoon into the evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from central Florida to southeast Virginia. Damaging winds and hail are the expected hazards.

Synopsis

A highly amplified upper pattern is anticipated with an expansive trough east of the Rockies and a ridge over the West. Associated with one of the several shortwave impulses embedded within the broad trough, primary surface cyclone should track from the Upper OH Valley towards the Northeast/southern New England coast. A cold front will tighten as it moves east of the Appalachians and off the Eastern Seaboard by 12Z Monday.

Central FL to Southeast VA

As has been the case for the past few days, some models have struggled with run-to-run consistency in the degree of convective coverage ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Latest trends have settled back into indicating a drier/more mixed boundary layer ahead of the front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may be confined from central FL to southeast GA where MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg should be common by Sunday afternoon. While low-level shear will be weak, strengthening mid-level west-southwesterlies should support a threat for isolated severe wind/hail.

Farther north, decreasing surface-based instability should be compensated by stronger deep-layer shear. This will support a more conditional risk for severe, with mainly marginal intensities. Storm coverage may be quite limited through sunset before isolated convection develops during the evening as increasing mid-level height falls occur just prior to the front shifting offshore.

..Grams.. 11/08/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, November 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, November 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, November 10: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, November 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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