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Outlook for Friday, November 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, November 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, November 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, November 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, November 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, November 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140807 SPC AC 140807

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

A midlevel shortwave trough will dampen as it shifts east from the central Plains toward the Mid-South in the Day 4-5/Mon-Tue time period. Some enhanced westerly flow will overspread the region nonetheless, and a weak surface low is forecast to track from KS/OK toward the central or southern Appalachians through Tuesday night. Ahead of the surface low and an attending cold front, modest Gulf moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms could develop across the Ozarks to the Mid-South vicinity Monday and Tuesday, through confidence in 15 percent coverage is low given the weakening midlevel trough and lack of a deepening surface cyclone.

During the Day 6-8 period, forecast model spread increases considerably. However, a general trend indicating a deepening trough across the West ejecting across the Plains toward the central U.S. Thursday and Friday is apparent. Depending on the evolution of this feature and any developing surface cyclone and attendant Gulf return flow across the south-central U.S., an increase in severe thunderstorm potential could develop. Large spread and poor run-to-run consistency among various guidance precludes probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 11/14/2025

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National Risk Overview

Friday, November 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Sunday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, November 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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