Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Sunday, May 31

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.

For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, May 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, May 26: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, May 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.