Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Summary
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across northern Utah and eastern parts of the Ohio Valley today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160553
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across northern Utah and eastern parts of the Ohio Valley today.
Synopsis
A mid-level anticyclone will prevail over the southern Plains to the TN Valley as a stationary upper trough morphs into a cut-off upper low along the West Coast today. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the anticyclone and overspread the Midwest to OH Valley, supporting occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Given rich low-level moisture along the northern periphery of the mid-level anticyclone, a couple of strong to severe storms may occur. A few strong to severe storms may also occur over portions of northern UT as a pronounced mid-level impulse rotates around the developing West Coast upper low, resulting in overlapping cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft.
Northern UT
As the aforementioned impulse pivots around the evolving upper low, a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak and corresponding 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread northern UT during the day. Surface heating will be limited given widespread cloud cover. Nonetheless, forecast soundings suggest that surface temperatures near 70 F may yield MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg given steep tropospheric lapse rates. Furthermore, stronger winds aloft that gradually veer with height will yield around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Multicells and perhaps embedded supercells should be the primary storm mode, capable of isolated instances of severe wind and/or hail.
Midwest into the OH Valley
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Wednesday) and will continue through the period (to 12Z Thursday). Some intensification of storms may occur over OH and immediate surrounding areas with one weak impulse by afternoon peak heating. Assuming some appreciable insolation can occur, surface temperatures may rise through the 80s F, amid 70s F dewpoints, contributing to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Given meager vertical wind shear, mainly pulse cellular and multicellular storms are expected. The stronger storm cores may produce wet downbursts, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust threat.
Another mid-level impulse will traverse the Midwest overnight, with several CAM guidance members supporting nocturnal convective initiation over IA in the 03-12Z period. At the moment, the evolution of this convection is uncertain, so no severe probabilities have been added. However, should more established convection develop overnight, an instance of marginally severe hail cannot be completely ruled out.
..Squitieri/Supinie.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Summary
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160527
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Discussion
Within the westerlies, which remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes, models continue to indicate that consolidating large-scale mid-level troughing will dig through northern Ontario, Quebec and adjacent portions of the Northeast through this period. It appears that this may contribute to some southwestward suppression of the persistent prominent mid-level ridging initially centered near or southwest of the Mid South vicinity early Thursday. In lower levels, it appears that this will be accompanied by a developing area of surface low pressure, trailed by a reinforcing cool intrusion across the St. Lawrence Valley, upper Great Lakes and adjacent Upper Midwest. A preceding front, advancing to the south/southeast of the lower Great Lakes, may continue to overtake the Ohio Valley segment of an initial quasi-stationary frontal zone and advance through much of the Mid Atlantic and lower Ohio Valley by 12Z Friday. The quasi-stationary boundary may remain so across the lower Missouri Valley, but perhaps shift slowly northward across the central Great Plains in response to a weak short wave perturbation migrating around the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridging.
It appears that this impulse will precede a cut-off low, initially inland of the northern California coast, before redeveloping north-northeastward and elongating across the northern Intermountain region and Great Basin later Thursday through Thursday night.
Along the southeastern periphery of the mid-level ridge, another perturbation is still forecast to slowly overspread portions of south Atlantic coastal areas.
Great Plains through Ohio Valley
Guidance continues to indicate that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, focused along and south of the initial quasi-stationary frontal zone, and generally beneath the mid-level ridging, will again contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE with insolation Thursday. However, generally warm thermodynamic profiles and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear probably will continue to inhibit the risk for organized severe thunderstorm activity.
In association with a low amplitude mid-level wave emerging from the Four Corners, an increase in thunderstorm development is forecast overnight, aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on a strengthening southerly 850-700 mb jet. Focused mostly across the middle Missouri Valley, well to the north of the surface frontal zone where elevated instability is likely to remain limited, this activity is expected to remain weak with little risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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