Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, May 4

• Monday, May 5 →

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041956

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast.

20z Update

Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL.

Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information.

Great Basin and western US

Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft.

..Lyons.. 05/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/

New Mexico and West Texas

Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening.

Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas

An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal.

A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Florida

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado.

Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana

As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur.

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 4

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 5%

Monday, May 5

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, May 6

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, May 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, May 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, May 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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