Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, May 5

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, May 5	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, May 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, May 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, May 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, May 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday - Southern High Plains

Lee cyclogenesis will strengthen on Monday in the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough advects eastward. As this occurs, rich low-level moisture will advect into West Texas which will result in strong instability as temperatures continue to cool aloft. Expect scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline during the afternoon/evening. However, more widespread storm development is likely after 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens across West Texas. Initial supercells will have a threat for all severe weather hazards before eventual upscale growth into a MCS likely results in a greater severe wind threat.

Day 5/Tuesday - Central/East Texas into Louisiana

Day 4 thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along a frontal zone across central/East Texas and persist eastward through the day. Destabilization remains questionable as strong high pressure and the low-latitude nature of the mid-level trough may limit northward movement of the warm front. The potential for this front to be stationary, in addition to widespread convection/cloud cover concerns along the front, preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, there will likely be a corridor along the frontal zone with some greater severe weather threat which may become more clear as the event draws closer.

Additional severe storms will be possible Day 6 and 7 along the frontal zone/composite outflow in Texas, but the location of this feature and degree of destabilization along it will be highly dependent on prior days convective activity. For these reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time.

..Bentley.. 05/02/2025

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National Risk Overview

Friday, May 2: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, May 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, May 4: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, May 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, May 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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