Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, June 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180842 SPC AC 180842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday

An amplified upper-level pattern will continue into Saturday, with a prominent ridge extending from the Southeast into the Midwest and Ohio Valley, and a deep trough over much of the West. Large to extreme buoyancy will again develop across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest, but the influence of the ridge will tend to suppress storm development across the warm sector.

While differing in the details, some extended-range guidance suggests that an MCS (or at least its remnant MCV) that develops late on D3/Friday will move across the far northern Great Lakes and adjacent parts of Ontario on Saturday, and potentially into parts of the lower Great Lakes by Saturday evening. Should such an evolution occur, some severe threat could accompany this system, but predictability for such a scenario at this range is inherently low.

Farther west, there is substantial spread in guidance regarding the magnitude of low-level moisture and instability across parts of MT and northern WY into western ND on Saturday. However, if stronger flow associated with the western trough can impinge upon favorable instability, then an organized severe threat could evolve during the afternoon and evening.

D5/Sunday

The western trough is generally forecast to take on more of a positive tilt and eventually deamplify on Sunday, as a substantial shortwave and midlevel jet maximum eject across parts of the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will move across parts of the northern/central Plains. At this time, it appears the organized severe threat may be limited by very warm temperatures aloft and a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to lag behind the front.

Strong buoyancy may spread into parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Sunday. Some organized severe potential could develop within the instability gradient along the periphery of the ridge, though mesoscale details remain highly uncertain at this time.

D6/Monday - D8/Wednesday… Uncertainty increases into early next week regarding evolution of the synoptic pattern, though guidance generally suggests that an upper ridge will remain prominent across parts of the eastern CONUS, while a weak upper trough will persist across parts of the West into the northern and central Plains. While some severe potential could evolve across parts of the Great Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast along the periphery of the ridge, details regarding favored days and locations remain highly uncertain.

..Dean.. 06/18/2025

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 18: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, June 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 20: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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