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Outlook for Thursday, June 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, June 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190845 SPC AC 190845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Sunday

The upper-level trough over the West is forecast to take on more of a positive tilt on Sunday, as an embedded shortwave and attendant midlevel jet maximum move across the northern Rockies/High Plains. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to move from SD toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through the northern/central Plains. Guidance varies regarding frontal timing, though generally agrees that stronger mid/upper-level flow will tend to lag behind the front.

While details remain uncertain, strong to potentially severe storms may develop near/north of the surface low across parts of the Dakotas/MN, and also along the trailing cold front into the central Plains.

D5/Monday - D8/Thursday

The upper ridge across the Southeast is expected to remain in place through at least early next week, with some guidance suggesting potential for deamplification by the middle of the week. Multiple shortwaves may emerge from the persistent (though weakening) western trough through at least Wednesday, resulting in some potential for strong to severe storms along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and possibly parts of the Northeast. However, predictability remains quite low regarding the details of any organized severe threats during this time frame.

..Dean.. 06/19/2025

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Friday, June 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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