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Outlook for Friday, June 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Monday

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains and upper Midwest is forecast to move into Ontario on Monday, along the northern periphery of an amplified upper ridge over the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move through parts of the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and central Plains. The strongest deep-layer flow may tend to lag behind the front, but moderate to strong instability could support strong to potentially severe storms along the front during the afternoon and evening.

Farther east, strong instability is generally forecast to develop across parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England. However, due to the influence of the upper ridge, there is currently little signal for diurnal storm development across this region on Monday.

D5/Tuesday

Extended-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a cold front will move southward across the lower Great Lakes into New England on Tuesday. Favorable low-level moisture and strong instability could support severe-storm potential along the front during the afternoon and evening. However, coverage of storms is currently uncertain, due to the lingering influence of the upper ridge, and a tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to be displaced well north of the front.

The western upper trough is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, with most guidance suggesting that mid/upper-level flow will tend to weaken downstream across the Great Plains and upper Midwest. However, strong to locally severe storms could again be possible near the front, which may begin to move northward across the central Plains as a warm front through the day.

D6/Wednesday - D8/Friday

Predictability begins to wane by the middle of next week regarding the evolution of synoptic features across the CONUS, though the same general pattern of a weak upper trough in the West and an upper ridge over the East may continue through at least Wednesday. In the absence of any apparent strong forcing mechanisms, organized severe potential (if any) may tend be focused near a convectively influenced front across parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes.

..Dean.. 06/20/2025

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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