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Outlook for Saturday, June 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210842 SPC AC 210842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over the East.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy.

Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening.

D5/Wednesday

Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve within this pattern.

D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday

Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at this forecast range.

..Dean.. 06/21/2025

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, June 22: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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