Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, June 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 25	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220832 SPC AC 220832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday

Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs.

Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time.

D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday

Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast.

One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms.

..Dean.. 06/22/2025

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National Risk Overview

Monday, June 23: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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