Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, June 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday: Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes

An area of interest for severe-storm potential on Thursday resides from eastern IA/southeast MN into northern IL/southern WI. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is generally forecast to move across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes during the afternoon, potentially accompanied by a frontal wave. While deep-layer flow will generally remain rather modest, rich low-level moisture and strong heating will support moderate to strong buoyancy along/south of the front. Strong to potentially severe storms may develop as the approaching shortwave trough impinges upon the favorable buoyancy. Uncertainty regarding frontal position and the sufficiency of deep-layer shear precludes higher confidence at this time.

D5/Friday: Northern Plains

An area of interest for Friday resides across parts of the northern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains, though considerable spread remains regarding the timing of this relatively low-amplitude shortwave and attendant cold front. The front may impinge upon strong instability across parts of the Dakotas, with scattered storm and eventual MCS development possible. Deep-layer shear may remain relatively modest, but the magnitude of instability will likely support some organized severe threat.

D6/Saturday: Northern Plains/Upper Midwest

Some continuation of severe-storm potential is possible into Saturday, potentially shifting eastward into the Upper Midwest. Spread in guidance becomes quite large at this range regarding placement of the warm sector Saturday afternoon, but strong instability and at least modest deep-layer shear could support severe storms along/east of the cold front.

..Dean.. 06/23/2025

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National Risk Overview

Monday, June 23: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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