Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, June 28	low / uncertain
Day 5	Sunday, June 29	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 2	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250829 SPC AC 250829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Models are in general agreement with the upper air pattern, but increasing spread is seen from Sunday/D5 and beyond.

On Saturday/D4, a low amplitude wave will lift out of the ND/northern MN vicinity and move into Ontario. This will result in temporary height rises during the day before gradual falls occur overnight and into as a secondary wave moves from MT into the Dakotas overnight. Early day storms may exist over parts of northern MN in association with the low-level jet, and this activity could weaken during the day. Then, strong instability is forecast for several models, perhaps MUCAPE to around 5000 J/kg, over eastern SD and NE and into IA and MN. Heating within the surface trough may spur afternoon development from SD into NE, with some potential for activity to spread east/northeast. However, shear will likely be weak, with 500 mb winds averaging around 15 kt. Despite very strong instability, the weak-forcing situation in the wake of the exiting wave suggests low-predictability at this time.

Around Sunday/D5, the secondary wave is forecast to amplify across the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes, with a cold front pushing south and extending roughly from WI to NE. Strong instability will likely exist ahead of such a boundary, though shear will again be weak. Still, storms will likely develop across the region, with areas of damaging gusts potential.

From Monday/D6 through Wednesday/D8, the aforementioned trough will spread across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with what appears to be an end to the extreme instability levels. Scattered storms will likely persist over much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, with sporadic strong gusts daily.

..Jewell.. 06/25/2025

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 26: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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