Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like lofi music and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

Outlook for Friday, July 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 4	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270855 SPC AC 270855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes at the beginning of the period D4/Monday and shift into the Northeast by Tuesday. A surface cold front will shift east across the Great Lakes on Monday and to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop across a large area east of the Appalachians on Day 5/Tuesday. The strongest shear is forecast from Pennsylvania northward, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. However, the greatest instability should remain mostly south of this better flow. Therefore, a favorable corridor may develop for some strong to severe storms near the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas where instability and modest shear overlap, but this remains too uncertain for severe weather probabilities at this time.

Beyond Day 5, mid-level ridging will shift east across the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will build across much of the eastern CONUS. The combination of weak mid-level flow beneath the mid-level ridge and surface high pressure should limit severe weather potential for Day 6 and beyond. Strong instability is forecast to return to the northern Plains, but given the lack of mid-level flow, any storms will likely only be marginally severe at best. Some stronger mid-level flow may return to the northern Plains by next weekend as the ridge starts to break down, which may be the next chance for more organized severe storms in the latter portion of the extended period.

..Bentley.. 06/27/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, June 27: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 28: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.