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Outlook for Saturday, July 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280800 SPC AC 280800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Day 4/Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move east through the period. Moderate instability is expected along this front and some severe weather may be possible from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Slight risk (15%) probabilities may eventually be needed within this zone, but there is potential for cloudcover/thunderstorm activity from Monday evening to impact destabilization. Therefore, confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time.

Beyond Day 4, a relative lull in severe weather potential is expected. Multiple reinforcing mid-level troughs will amplify the larger-scale trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the surface cold front will move south, potentially to the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic. This will eliminate the very moist airmass which resulted in moderate to strong instability across much of the eastern CONUS for the past few weeks.

The greater low-level moisture is expected to remain and perhaps advect north across the central Plains beneath a large-scale ridge. This could result in some thunderstorm activity, but shear is expected to be very weak, and the building ridge aloft may suppress convection on D5/Wednesday to D6/Thursday.

By next weekend, this ridge is expected to flatten with some stronger mid-level flow moving across the northern Plains. The exact evolution of the upper-pattern remains uncertain and therefore, confidence is low, but severe weather chances may increase across the northern Plains by next weekend.

..Bentley.. 06/28/2025

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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