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Outlook for Sunday, July 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290819 SPC AC 290819

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal.

Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time.

..Bentley.. 06/29/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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