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Outlook for Tuesday, July 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, July 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. This will likely be the most substantial severe weather threat during the extended period before broad, strong ridging builds across much of the eastern/central CONUS.

Day 4/Friday

As a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains on Friday, strong southerly flow will advect moisture northward across a broad warm sector near the Upper Midwest. This will result in moderate to strong instability as temperatures warm well into the 80s. Widespread thunderstorms are likely along the frontal zone during the afternoon/evening. 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow will overspread the warm sector which will provide some shear for storm organization. However, southwesterly surface winds will also increase during the afternoon within the warm front and therefore, the net shear may remain somewhat minimal. Some organized storms with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts are possible, but the aforementioned concerns about deep-layer shear preclude the confidence needed for 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.

Beyond Day 4, moderate to strong instability is forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS with widespread thunderstorm activity likely. However, shear will remain mostly nebulous with the stronger mid-level flow confined to areas north of the better instability. Therefore, some marginal regional severe weather threat will be likely most days, but a more organized severe weather risk appears unlikely at this time.

..Bentley.. 07/01/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, July 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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