Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, July 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140829 SPC AC 140829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will build across the south-central and southeastern U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. This will confine a series of low-amplitude upper troughs to the northern tier of the U.S. along the international border. Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be possible through the period as individual shortwaves provide modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity. Given the generally low-amplitude nature the upper pattern across the northern U.S. through at least Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun, the main driver of severe potential each day will be mesoscale features tied to prior days convective evolution, not well resolved at longer time scales. As a result, predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 07/14/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, July 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, July 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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