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Outlook for Tuesday, July 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, July 18 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, July 19 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, July 20 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, July 21 predictability too low
Day 8 Tuesday, July 22 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150652 SPC AC 150652

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 07/15/2025

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 15
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Wednesday, July 16
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 17
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, July 18
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 19
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 20
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 21
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 22
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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