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* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Day 4 | Friday, July 18 | predictability too low |
Day 5 | Saturday, July 19 | predictability too low |
Day 6 | Sunday, July 20 | predictability too low |
Day 7 | Monday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Day 8 | Tuesday, July 22 | predictability too low |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150652 SPC AC 150652
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 07/15/2025
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Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
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