Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 19	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160745 SPC AC 160745

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

A low-amplitude upper trough will move from the Great Lakes through the Northeast during the Day 4-5/Sat-Sun period. Some enhanced westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will accompany this system. While forecast guidance varies with timing and location of these features, some severe potential could develop from portions of the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic over the weekend ahead of a cold front. Details are still uncertain regarding where a better chance for severe storms may develop, precluding probabilities.

By early next week, upper ridging is forecast for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper shortwave trough persists over the Northwest. Late in the period, a shortwave impulse may eject from the Northwest upper shortwave and move across the northern Plains, posing some increasing risk for severe potential, though confidence in this scenario remains too low to include an outlook area at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/16/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 16: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 17: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, July 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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