Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, July 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 21	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, July 22	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180854 SPC AC 180854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance suggests that mid/upper ridging may remain a prominent influence across much of the central and southeastern U.S. through this period. Beneath its northern periphery, across parts of the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, it appears that a seasonably moist boundary-layer may become characterized by moderate to strong diurnal destabilization each day. However, forcing for ascent to support convective development remains unclear, and might be largely dependent on sub-synoptic features with low predictability, particularly at this extended range.

Sizable spread exists among the output concerning synoptic features within the westerlies, as well. However, there appears some signal that a short wave perturbation, emerging either from the Pacific Northwest or northwestern Canadian provinces early next week, could be accompanied by an eastward advecting plume of elevated mixed-layer air, low-level moistening and strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes toward the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast late next Wednesday into Friday. It might not be out of the question that this regime could become supportive of one or two sustained, organized clusters of storms capable of producing swaths of damaging winds and some hail.

..Kerr.. 07/18/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 18: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 20: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, July 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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