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Outlook for Sunday, July 27

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251923

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region.

Synopsis

An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses.

Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley

Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions.

Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England

A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon.

..Moore.. 07/25/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 25: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 26: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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